US dollar's V-shaped reversal suppresses copper prices' rebound; market awaits more tariff agreements [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: May 15, 2025 08:54
["[US dollar's V-shaped rebound suppresses copper prices' rebound; market awaits more tariff agreement conclusions] On the macro side, the US dollar index fell yesterday amid concerns about the economy. Later, according to market news, the US's trade tariff agreements with Japan, South Korea, and India were 'close to conclusion,' and the US would not seek a weak US dollar in tariff negotiations. The US dollar index rebounded after falling close to the 100-point mark, forming a V-shaped trend, causing copper prices to rise first and then fall overnight."]

        SMM May 15th news: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,619.5/mt. It fluctuated upward in the early session, reaching an intraday high of $9,664.0/mt before pulling back. It touched a low of $9,575.5/mt towards the end of the session and eventually closed at $9,592.0/mt, down 0.34%. Trading volume was 17,304 lots, and open interest was 291,016 lots. Overnight, the SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 78,900 yuan/mt. It rose rapidly in the early session, touching an intraday high of 79,090 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward. It touched a low of 78,480 yuan/mt during the session and then rebounded somewhat, eventually closing at 78,650 yuan/mt, up 0.19%. Trading volume was 37,544 lots, and open interest was 190,552 lots. On the macro side, the US dollar index fell yesterday amid concerns about the economy. Later, market news indicated that the US was "close to reaching" trade tariff agreements with Japan, South Korea, and India, and that the US would not seek a weaker US dollar in tariff negotiations. The US dollar index rebounded after falling close to the 100-point mark, forming a V-shaped trend, causing copper prices to rise first and then fall overnight. On the fundamental side, as the last trading day of the 2505 contract approached, downstream purchasing sentiment was low amid high copper prices and a widening price spread between futures contracts. It is expected that spot prices against the SHFE copper 2506 contract will move downwards after a higher opening in terms of premium quotes. Overall, with fluctuations in the US dollar index and the approaching delivery date, it is expected that there will be certain upward pressure on copper prices today.

​​​​​​

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
16 hours ago
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
Read More
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
Premier Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to study policy measures for promoting effective investment. The meeting noted that promoting effective investment plays an important role in stabilizing economic growth and strengthening momentum for development. It is necessary to innovate and improve policy measures, and intensify efforts to enhance the efficiency of utilizing funds such as central budget investments, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new-type policy-based financial instruments. In conjunction with formulating and implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan
16 hours ago
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
16 hours ago
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
Read More
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we will thoroughly implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the plenary sessions of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy, strengthen top-level design, build computing power interconnection nodes oriented toward national hub periods, major strategic regions, and key industries, establish a system of computing power interconnection nodes, improve the efficiency and service level of public computing power resources, and promote high-quality development of computing power.
16 hours ago
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
16 hours ago
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
Read More
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
After intensive indirect consultations, the new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US in Muscat, the capital of Oman, has achieved phased progress. It is reported that during this round of talks, the Iranian and US delegations did not meet directly. Instead, Omani Foreign Minister Badr acted as an intermediary, conveying a series of core proposals, strategic concerns, and policy positions to the other side. The atmosphere at the talks was tense yet efficient. According to preliminary on-site assessments, although both sides continue to negotiate over specific terms, they have reached a consensus on the key objective of "continuing dialogue."
16 hours ago