HRC Futures Close Up Slightly, Inventory Declines; Price Outlook Mixed

Published: May 13, 2025 17:26
Today, the most-traded HRC futures fluctuated rangebound, closing at 3,215 in the afternoon session, up 0.78%. On the spot market, intraday quotes fluctuated relatively small on a WoW basis, with market transactions weaker than yesterday.

According to SMM data, this week's HRC inventory in Shenyang was 104,300 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW, a decrease of 1.88%. YoY, it was down 64,700 mt, a decrease of 38.28%.

On the fundamental side, the daily average production schedule for HRC in May decreased slightly MoM from April, with supply pressure less than previously expected. In the short term, the Sino-US tariff war has temporarily come to an end, and the trading space for favourable macro front has narrowed, leaving insufficient momentum for HRC prices to rise further. It is expected that the most-traded contract will continue to fluctuate within the range of 3,140-3,280 in the short term. In the medium and long-term, off-season demand will gradually pull back. Without further macroeconomic stimulus, the price center of HRC will still move lower.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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