Goldman Sachs Shifts Forecast: US Fed Interest Rate Cut Expected in December, Not July

Published: May 13, 2025 11:54
[Goldman Sachs Pushes Back Expected Timing of Next US Fed Interest Rate Cut to December] Goldman Sachs economists stated, "In our new economic baseline scenario, the rationale for an interest rate cut has shifted from 'providing insurance' to 'normalization,' as economic growth remains relatively robust, the rise in unemployment has slowed slightly, and the urgency for policy support has diminished." Goldman Sachs economists, including Jan Hatzius, said in a report on Monday, "We expect the US Fed to start cutting interest rates three times later than our previous expectation (in December, rather than July as previously anticipated), and to implement rate cuts at every other meeting, rather than consecutively." Goldman Sachs economists also stated, "We have revised up our 2025 economic growth forecast (Q4/Q4) by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowered the probability of an economic recession within 12 months to 35%.

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