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CICC Report: Further Tariff Ease May Prompt US Fed to Consider Interest Rate Cut
iconMay 13, 2025 09:23
Source:SMM
[CICC: If Tariffs Are Further Eased, the US Fed May Be Likely to Cut Interest Rates] A CICC research report stated that if tariffs are further eased, the US Fed may be likely to cut interest rates. Currently, the growth pressure is not evident, with the April non-farm payrolls remaining strong and the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs maintaining resilience. Even if the US Fed wants to take a preemptive response, there is insufficient justification. Moreover, with Powell's term ending in May next year, the risk of an overreaction is significant. Therefore, amidst the "dilemma" of balancing inflation and growth, the US Fed is more likely to choose a wait-and-see approach rather than "pre-emptive action." However, if the subsequent tariff risks can be further eased, the US Fed will have the opportunity to cut interest rates in Q3 and Q4 to alleviate the growth pressure at that time.

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