Guinea’s bauxite sector has drawn significant attention in recent years, with production nearing 130-137 million tonnes annually and multiple mining and infrastructure projects underway.

[SMM Midday Spot Aluminum Review: Social Inventory Buildup, Premiums Expected to Weaken, Market Transactions Remain Sluggish] On the inventory side, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 585,000 mt on May 19, with an inventory buildup of 4,000 mt compared to the previous day. In the short term, with high aluminum prices and an increase in inventory arrivals, market transactions have slowed down, and there is insufficient upward momentum for premiums. It is expected that premiums and discounts will be in the doldrums in the subsequent period.

On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,519/mt, initially touching a high of $9,541.5/mt before slightly pulling back and then continuing to rise.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Support Coexists with Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers, Aluminum Prices Show Both Resilience and Pressure in the Short Term] Overall, favorable macro conditions provide a floor for aluminum prices, and low inventory further strengthens price resilience. However, the pressure of the off-season on the demand side limits the upside room. In the short term, attention should be paid to the performance of domestic and overseas demand, as well as the supply situation of bauxite.

Recently, news has been circulating widely in the market that an energy giant has established aluminum positions exceeding 1 million mt on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The scale of this position is staggering — as of May 15, LME aluminum inventory stood at only 397,300 mt (with Rusal accounting for approximately 90% of it), and the giant's position is 2.5 times larger than the existing inventory. Affected by this, the near-month contracts of LME aluminum have shifted from a contango structure with futures premiums of $28 to a slight backwardation structure with spot premiums, intensifying market concerns about the rise in near-month contract prices of LME aluminum. Many investors are beginning to wonder if LME aluminum will replicate the previous strong backwardation trend of LME copper, which was triggered by changes in global trade flows due to tariff policy risks.