Futures Market:
On Friday evening, LME lead opened at $1,952.5/mt. During the Asian session, it dipped to a low of $1,948.5/mt before fluctuating upward to a high of $1,985.5/mt in the European session. After a period of narrow range-bound consolidation, it closed at this level, up $33/mt or 1.69%.
On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2506 contract opened at 16,900 yuan/mt. After dipping to a low of 16,800 yuan/mt in the early session, it rose to a high of 16,945 yuan/mt. It then consolidated sideways around the daily moving average and eventually closed at 16,880 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt or 0.54%.
Macro Aspects: At a press conference, He Lifeng, the Chinese head of the China-US economic and trade talks and Vice Premier of the State Council, stated that China and the US had reached important consensus and made substantive progress in their talks. Both sides will finalise the relevant details as soon as possible and release a joint statement on the talks on May 12.
》Click to view historical SMM lead spot quotes
Spot Market Fundamentals:
On Friday, Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was quoted at premiums of 0-20 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC and Jinde lead were quoted at discounts of 20-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 or 2506 contracts. SHFE lead maintained a consolidation trend, with suppliers selling at market prices. Some quotes widened their discounts again, especially for cargoes self-picked up from smelters, which were quoted at discounts of 125-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead price. In the secondary lead sector, smelters reduced their shipments, with some secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement only, engaging in more price negotiations. Some cargoes with wider discounts were traded.
Inventory: As of May 9, LME lead inventory fell by 1,725 mt to 253,425 mt, with the decline mainly coming from Singapore warehouses. As of May 8, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five locations in China tracked by SMM reached 47,500 mt, up 2,200 mt from April 30 and 1,600 mt from May 6.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
The off-season trend in lead consumption is unlikely to change, coupled with export obstacles, limiting downstream enterprises' demand for lead ingots. Consumption remains a drag on lead price movements. However, from mid-to-late May to June, regular spring maintenance of primary lead production is expected to increase, and secondary lead enterprises, facing expanding losses, also plan to cut production for maintenance. This has led to expectations of tightening lead ingot supply, which may alleviate the downward pressure on lead ingot inventory buildup and the negative impact of the consumption gap on lead prices. The cost support from secondary refined lead is becoming prominent. In the short term, lead prices may continue to fluctuate in the doldrums.
