Copper pipe & tube expected to decline in May

The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in April was 83.72%

According to data from SMM, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in April was 83.72%, down 1.51 percentage points MoM and 2.81 percentage points YoY. The actual operating rate of copper pipe & tube production in April was slightly lower than expected but remained at a high level. The main reason was that the impact of tariffs had not significantly affected the orders already confirmed in April, and there were cases of extended delivery dates, leading to some orders being shifted to May. As a result, the overall operating rate in April was approximately 2% lower than expected. Large enterprises indicated that there was no significant impact on exports of air conditioners and copper pipe & tube in April. However, an OEM manufacturer's orders mainly exported to North America from Southeast Asia were severely affected, which may lead to a decline in the operating rate of copper pipe & tube production in Southeast Asia ahead of the domestic market. Orders for medium-sized and small enterprises were relatively balanced, with no clear impact from tariffs observed yet. However, April, traditionally a peak season, did not show a stronger performance compared to the previous year, and the alloy pipe market continued to drag on growth.

The raw material inventory ratio of copper pipe & tube enterprises in April was 4.68%
The raw material inventory ratio of copper pipe & tube enterprises in April was 4.68%, up 0.13 percentage point MoM. Copper prices experienced a brief limit-down in early April before rising steadily. Downstream demand was mainly driven by just-in-time procurement. However, due to the Labour Day holiday, large enterprises generally maintained operations, leading to an increase in raw material inventory at month-end.

The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises is expected to be 80.07% in May 2025
According to data from SMM, the expected operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in May 2025 is 80.07%, down 3.65 percentage points MoM and 3.25 percentage points YoY. According to the latest household air conditioner production schedule report released by ChinaIOL, the production schedule for household air conditioners in May 2025 is expected to increase by 15.4% compared to the actual domestic sales performance of the same period last year, while the export schedule is expected to decrease by 1.6% compared to the actual export performance of the same period last year. The decline in export orders has dragged down some orders for large domestic copper pipe & tube factories. The expected operating rate for large copper pipe & tube factories in May is only 79.64%, lower than the industry's overall operating rate. Medium-sized enterprises have shown remarkable performance, with an expected operating rate of 86.28%. This is mainly due to saturated order intake in April and some enterprises absorbing orders from the domestic air conditioner market of large copper pipe & tube enterprises, with individual enterprises requiring a 20-day lead time for delivery. However, enterprises have generally reported a decrease in new orders since May due to tariff uncertainties, which may lead to "underperformance in peak season".