【SMM Daily Briefing on Coke & Coal】20250509

Published: May 9, 2025 16:53

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[SMM Daily Briefing on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking enterprises maintained slight profitability, with an overall moderate production enthusiasm and a high operating rate. However, the shipment of some coking enterprises slowed down, leading to an increase in shipment pressure. On the demand side, steel mills' rigid demand for coke remained, and with coke inventories at steel mills within a reasonable range, some steel mills began to control coke arrivals. Overall, the imbalance in the coke fundamentals was relatively small. However, the market outlook for finished steel products was relatively pessimistic. Additionally, the cost support for coke had weakened recently, and market sentiment turned bearish. The coke market is expected to be in the doldrums next week, with a possibility of price reductions.

[SMM Daily Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke]

Coking Coal Market:

In Linfen, the quoted price for low-sulphur coking coal is 1,300 yuan/mt. In Tangshan, the quoted price for low-sulphur coking coal is 1,370 yuan/mt.

In terms of fundamentals, coal mine production is normal, and supply is loose. Quoted prices from coal mines have seen a slight correction. Nearly half of the online auction bids have failed, with transaction prices mainly declining. In summary, the price of coking coal has pulled back, and market sentiment has turned bearish. Next week, the coking coal market may remain in the doldrums.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,680 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,540 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,340 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,250 yuan/mt.

In terms of supply, coking enterprises are maintaining slight profitability, with overall production enthusiasm being moderate. Operating rates remain high, but shipments from some coking enterprises have slowed down somewhat, increasing shipment pressure. On the demand side, steel mills' rigid demand for coke persists. Additionally, steel mills' coke inventories are within a reasonable range, and some steel mills have begun to control coke arrivals. Overall, the imbalance in the coke market fundamentals is relatively small. However, market expectations for finished steel are relatively pessimistic, and the cost support for coke has weakened recently. Market sentiment has turned bearish. Next week, the coke market may remain in the doldrums, with expectations of price reductions.

[SMM Steel]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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