Macro Warmth Can't Conceal Weak Demand, Stainless Steel Prices Still Lack Momentum for Upswing 【SMM Analysis】

SMM learned that overseas mine production cuts, extreme weather in South America, and declining ore grades and recovery rates were intensively discussed during a recent industry association meeting. These concerns strengthened expectations of tighter overseas molybdenum supply, stimulated some buying and pushed molybdenum oxide prices to around $34/lb Mo. Supply-side expectations continue to support prices, while some mine production, grade and recovery issues may not improve materially until around 2028. China’s market also remains firm, but elevated prices are discouraging chasing. Well-funded buyers, low-inventory users and producers with firm orders continue to purchase as needed, while processors mainly restock to maintain production.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS futures stop falling and recover; steel mills hold prices firm amid weak demand pressure on stainless steel spot According to SMM on September 15, SS futures stopped falling and rebounded. Although prices dipped to 13,460 yuan/mt during the session, they recovered and rallied near the close. As of market close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 13,560 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures stopped falling and rebounded, spot prices at steel mills still showed inverted price spreads. Market sources reported that steel mills held meetings to discuss production cuts. Coupled with tight supply at some mills and restricted-price sales, spot prices remained stable for the time being. Downstream, however, remained cautious and on the sidelines due to weak demand, and spot market trading continued to be sluggish. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was quoted at 13,505 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 665-1,065 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; cold-rolled raw-edge 304/2B coil, Wuxi average price was flat, Foshan average price was flat; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, stainless steel futures overall extended a low-level subdued consolidation pattern. Disappointing peak-season expectations dominated futures sentiment, and bearish sentiment in the market continued to build. The end-user recovery has yet to materialize, and market expectations for a rebound have completely fallen through. Pessimistic sentiment was released in a concentrated manner, dragging SS futures to continue hitting bottom, with prices briefly dipping to 1,368...

Mongolia’s NSO reported molybdenum concentrate output, on a contained-metal basis, of 424.4 tonnes in July 2026, down 1.3% MoM and 17.0% YoY. Jan–Jul output totaled 3,290.5 tonnes, up 9.3% YoY.