[Weekly Review of Secondary Aluminum Market]The aluminum scrap market showed a divergent adjustment trend after the Labour Day holiday. As of May 8, SMM A00 primary aluminum spot closed at 19,620 yuan/mt, down a cumulative 440 yuan/mt from the level before the holiday (April 30). Aluminum scrap prices generally followed the downward trend of primary aluminum, but significant differences were observed across product types and regions.

In terms of aluminum billet inventory, according to SMM statistics, as of May 8, the aluminum billet inventory in major domestic consumption areas reached 1.575 million mt, an increase of 6,500 mt compared to the pre-holiday level (April 30), but still a decrease of 53,600 mt YoY, remaining at a low level compared to the same period over the past three years. Domestic aluminum billet inventory first increased and then decreased after the holiday, mainly because manufacturers maintained normal production during the Labour Day holiday, leading to an increase in warehouse arrivals. However, the market experienced sharp fluctuations after the holiday, with aluminum prices plummeting, stimulating downstream restocking and promoting the continued de-stocking of aluminum billet inventory.

【Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum: Off-Season Effects Emerge, Insufficient Upside Momentum for ADC12 Prices】The aluminum scrap market exhibited a differentiated adjustment trend after the Labour Day holiday. As of May 8, SMM A00 primary aluminum spot closed at 19,620 yuan/mt, down a cumulative 440 yuan/mt from the pre-holiday level (April 30). Aluminum scrap prices generally followed the decline in primary aluminum, but significant differences were observed across varieties and regions.

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Bearish Capital Inflow Drives SHFE Aluminum Downward, Short-Term Destocking May Support Prices] Overall, on the macro side, it still takes time for the transmission of domestic favorable policies, and there is no conclusion to the tariff war yet, so the bearish impact persists. On the fundamental side, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingot inventory provides support for aluminum prices, but the expected weakening of demand and the weakening of aluminum production costs both provide support for bears. With bears entering the market, the futures market declines. Amidst the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, it is expected that domestic aluminum prices will fluctuate considerably in the short term. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade around 19,300-19,800 yuan/mt, while LME aluminum is expected to trade around $2,370-$2,400/mt.