Latest Poll: 40% of Public Believe the US Has Entered a Recession, Over 90% Have Felt the Impact of Inflation

On Tuesday Eastern Time, the latest poll results jointly released by the US-based Economist/YouGov showed that 40% of Americans believe the US is already in an economic recession.

40% of Americans Believe the US Has Entered a Recession

The latest Economist/YouGov poll found that 40% of US adults believe the US is in a recession, while 35% hold the opposite view. Additionally, about 25% of respondents answered "unsure" when asked about this topic.

The survey was conducted among 1,850 US adults from May 2 to 5. The margin of error was approximately 3.5 percentage points.

In early February this year, a similar survey conducted by pollster YouGov showed that 30% of Americans believed the US was already in an economic recession, a proportion that has clearly risen to 40% currently. However, this figure is still lower than the 50% recorded at year-end 2022 and early 2023, when the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led many to believe the US was in a recession.

The survey found that more than half of Democratic supporters (56%) believe the US is in a recession, while about a quarter of Republican supporters (26%) agree with this view.

In contrast, before US President Trump took the oath of office in January, 27% of Democratic supporters and 51% of Republican supporters believed the US was in a recession.

Inflation Remains the Top Issue

The survey also found that inflation remains the top issue for Americans. The vast majority (81%) believe inflation is a very important issue, with 47% expecting US price levels to be higher in six months, while about 22% believe they will be lower.

About 44% of US respondents said they believe gasoline prices will rise within six months. On the other hand, 23% expect gasoline prices to fall within six months.

Almost all respondents (96%) said they have already felt the impact of inflation in their own lives.

A Gallup poll last week found that 46% of US adults believe Trump is responsible for the current state of the US economy, while 27% of respondents blame his predecessor, former President Biden. Slightly more than one-fifth of respondents (21%) believe both presidents are equally responsible.

The Economist/YouGov poll found that Trump's approval rating is 42%, while 52% disapprove of his performance as president.