An aluminum enterprise in Shandong has adjusted the benchmark tender price for prebaked anodes in May 2025, with a decrease of 266 yuan/mt MoM. Meanwhile, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company has also lowered its sales prices, with a MoM decline of 466 yuan/mt. The performance of the raw material side has become a key factor in market fluctuations. Prices of petroleum coke and coal tar pitch have both declined. According to SMM data, as of May 9, the comprehensive cost of prebaked anodes in China had dropped to 4,985 yuan/mt, a significant decrease of 7.08% from April 7. The easing of cost-side pressure has supported the industry's profitability: Based on a one-month production cycle, despite prebaked anode enterprises still operating at a loss, the theoretical loss amount has narrowed by approximately 103 yuan/mt MoM, indicating clear signs of market recovery. Currently, the petroleum coke market is experiencing a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. On the one hand, an increase in the number of refineries undergoing maintenance has provided bottom support for prices. On the other hand, the persistent sluggishness in downstream procurement enthusiasm and strong wait-and-see sentiment have led to significant downward pressure on petroleum coke prices. SMM expects petroleum coke prices to continue their downward trend in May, thereby exerting a sustained impact on the cost side of prebaked anodes. Considering the aforementioned factors, SMM expects prebaked anode prices to remain in the doldrums next month.

[Supply-demand imbalance coupled with cost disturbances led to a decline in ADC12 prices in Q2 [SMM Analysis]]

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 9 May, 2025

[SMM Midday Review of Spot Aluminum: Price Pullback Stimulates Transactions, Central China's Spot Market Shows Strong Performance] On the inventory side, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, the inventory of aluminum ingots in three domestic locations stood at 487,400 mt on May 9, a destocking of 13,200 mt from the previous day. In the short term, the post-holiday pullback in aluminum prices has stimulated spot transactions, narrowing the spot discounts. However, it is still necessary to monitor the impact of changes in end-use demand due to the shift between peak and off-peak seasons in the downstream sector.