AICE 2025: EV and PV are key drivers of aluminum extrusion demand

On April 18, the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., and sponsored by Shangli County Keyuan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd., Press Metal International Ltd., Delta Metal (Holdings) Limited, Jinqiao Light Alloy Technology (Jiangmen) Co., Ltd., and other entities as forum title sponsors, Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jialang Industrial Co., Ltd. as forum co-organizers, and supported by various specially invited supporters, conference supporters, conference acknowledgment units, and media partners, successfully concluded at the Suzhou International Expo Center in Jiangsu!

The summit featured multiple sessions, including the Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, Aluminum Melting and Casting Technology Forum, Aluminum Die Casting Industry Development Forum, Supply and Demand Exchange - Domestic and International Aluminum Scrap Supply and Demand Forum, Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Industry Development Forum, Main Forum, Aluminum Industry Chain Sustainable Development Forum, Global Secondary Aluminum Industry Development Forum, and Industrial Aluminum Extrusion Forum. As the annual pinnacle event for the global aluminum industry, this conference, with the strategic pillars of "Global Vision, Industry Insights, Green Future," brought together over a hundred international authoritative experts, academic giants, leading entrepreneurs, and government representatives to build a platform for intellectual exchange. The conference focused on core topics such as aluminum market trend analysis, price trend forecasting, supply-demand pattern dissection, business opportunity matching, and cutting-edge technology exchanges, conducting in-depth discussions from multiple dimensions to set the direction for industry development. Attendees directly addressed industry pain points, explored paths for industrial innovation, and unlocked new paradigms for clean and sustainable development around key themes such as green and low-carbon transformation and intelligent upgrading. Through innovative drive and cross-industry thinking collisions, the conference fostered consensus, integrated resources, and actively responded to global climate change and environmental governance challenges. This event established a high-end dialogue and resource integration platform, empowering industrial upgrading with wisdom and injecting strong momentum into the high-quality development of the global aluminum industry, jointly drawing a new blueprint for the industry's future.

In addition, SMM meticulously prepared roundtable interview sessions across multiple forums, inviting many renowned industry experts and corporate executives to engage in intense intellectual collisions on various hot topics, including the green transformation of the aluminum industry - the development and outlook of the low-carbon aluminum market, internal and external challenges - exploring new paths for aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil enterprises in the fog, roundtable interview: discussing new models for integrated die-casting cooperation from a supply chain perspective, China's aluminum industry from a global perspective, analysis of factors influencing aluminum prices in 2025 and market forecasts for the second half of the year, building a global green aluminum ecosystem (ESG aluminum prices, CBAM), and the market business models and overseas investment opportunities of global secondary aluminum.

Industrial Aluminum Extrusions Forum

Speech Topic: Analysis of China's Industrial Aluminum Extrusions Market

Speaker: Kexin Yao, Senior Analyst of Aluminum Products at SMM

Supply and Demand of Aluminum Extrusions in China

China's aluminum extrusions have shown a rapid development trend over the past 10 years. The future prospects for lightweight extrusions required by NEVs and aluminum extrusions for PV are broad. In the future, the demand for construction extrusions will decline as the real estate growth rate slows down, while the demand for industrial extrusions will increase, with aluminum used in PV, automotive, machinery equipment, and durable goods sectors increasing year by year.

►SMM Analysis:

China's aluminum extrusions have shown a rapid development trend over the past 10 years. China's aluminum extrusions will slightly increase from 2024 to 2028.

By industry, construction extrusions will slightly decrease in the future. Since 2022, the real estate industry has experienced a downturn, with many domestic real estate enterprises facing credit tightening from multiple creditors. Frequent occurrences of unfinished housing projects and delayed deliveries have eroded homebuyers' confidence, leading to a sharp decline in the production of construction extrusions. Furthermore, under the macro-policy adjustments in the real estate sector in recent years, downstream demand is expected to remain relatively weak. Looking ahead, SMM forecasts a slight decline in the production of construction extrusions, from 10.96 million mt in 2023 to 8.69 million mt in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.5%.

The PV industry holds promising prospects for future development. After 2018, with a significant increase in aluminum consumption in sectors such as automotive, PV, and rail transit, many backward production capacities have actively transitioned to industrial extrusions, revitalizing the aluminum extrusion industry with a "second spring". From 2023 to 2028, SMM expects a substantial increase in the production of industrial extrusions, from 9.88 million mt to 15.91 million mt, with a CAGR of 10%.

Demand Analysis of Aluminum Extrusions in China

The overall downstream trend for aluminum extrusions in China is upward. In the future, as the growth rate of the real estate sector slows down, the demand for construction extrusions will decline, while the demand for industrial extrusions will increase. The aluminum consumption in sectors such as PV, automotive, machinery equipment, and durable goods for industrial extrusions will rise year by year.

►SMM Analysis:

Regarding construction extrusions, dragged down by the real estate sector, they will remain in the process of recovery and repair over the next two years. The consumption of construction extrusions is expected to continue its downward trend in the future. Although many construction extrusion enterprises are expanding high value-added orders related to system windows and doors, the overall proportion remains relatively small. Despite certain prospects in niche markets, their driving effect on the overall demand for construction extrusions is limited. In the future, although the construction extrusion industry will experience market exit, with a large number of small enterprises reducing or halting production and new production capacity investments decreasing.

In the industrial extrusion sector, PV extrusions and transportation extrusions are the main demand areas, while general industrial demand maintains slow growth. Since the introduction of China's "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goals, the PV industry has entered a policy environment of strong support and long-term friendliness. Domestic and overseas PV demand is expected to remain robust in the coming years. Amidst the urgent need for environmental protection and energy conservation, internal combustion engine vehicles need to reduce fuel consumption and emissions to improve efficiency, while new energy EVs need to reduce weight and power consumption to enhance driving range and competitiveness. Due to advantages such as high specific strength, high weight reduction rate, and excellent corrosion resistance, the use of aluminum alloy extrusions in automobiles is increasing year by year.

The demand growth rate for general industrial extrusions is expected to slow down in the coming years. General industrial extrusion products are relatively fragmented, covering various fields. Among them, the high-end sectors such as aerospace, military industry, etc., have high requirements for alloy raw materials and extrusion processes, presenting certain technical barriers. There are relatively few domestic producers capable of manufacturing these products, and a small amount of demand still relies on imports. The supply and demand in this segment remain tight.

New energy-related demand remains the main growth driver

Transformation of China's aluminum extrusion enterprises

Dragged down by the real estate industry, some extrusion enterprises that originally focused on building materials are attempting to transition to industrial extrusions, with PV extrusions becoming the preferred choice. However, due to the recent slowdown in PV growth, some enterprises have adopted new strategies, such as introducing CNC and extrusion machine equipment and engaging with terminal customers, in an attempt to transition again towards other industrial extrusions.

►SMM Analysis:

Considering the sluggishness of the construction industry, some extrusion producers have begun to transition towards industrial extrusions in recent years. Due to the relatively low technical barriers in PV extrusion production, it has become the preferred choice for transformation among many producers. However, with the slowdown in the growth rate of the PV industry, many extrusion enterprises are facing the challenge of transitioning once again towards other industrial extrusion segments, such as automotive, ESS, military industry, etc.

In terms of equipment, some transforming extrusion enterprises have introduced new equipment such as CNC machining centers and industrial extrusion machines. In terms of customers, extrusion producers with transformation intentions have also established connections with automakers, but becoming a supplier to automakers requires a lengthy certification process, which takes a considerable amount of time.

A typical example is Huajian Aluminum, which, while exploring the automotive extrusion market, has also collaborated with wind power enterprises to produce shells and operating platforms for wind power modules.

Analysis of China's aluminum extrusion imports and exports

China is a net exporter of aluminum extrusions. The overall trend of China's aluminum extrusion exports is increasing, but it is slightly affected by overseas anti-dumping policies. In 2023, China's total aluminum extrusion exports reached 916,000 mt, with Vietnam, the Philippines, Israel, Australia, and Malaysia being the main export destinations.

Speech Topic: Market Development and Future Trends of PV Frames

Guest Speaker: Sun Wei, Vice President of Yongzhen Green Energy Materials Research Institute (Changzhou) Co., Ltd.

Speech Topic: Aluminum Processing Empowers the Advancement of Three-Electric Products and Promotes Technological Innovation

Guest Speaker: Man Ruiping, Head of Product Research and Planning at Liaoning Xiangyu Aluminum Co., Ltd.

Speech Topic: The Development History and Applications of High-Strength Aluminum Alloys in Consumer Electronics

Guest Speaker: Huang Xinwen, Ph.D. in Metallurgy, Haifengbo Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

Speech Topic: Introduction to High-Performance Extruded Aluminum Passive Safety Components for NEVs

Guest Speaker: Zhao Hui, Ph.D., Guangdong Haomei New Material Co., Ltd.

Speech Topic: Applications of Aluminum Matrix Composites in the Aerospace Field

Guest Speaker: Geng Lin, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor, School of Materials Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology

Speech Topic: Material Engineering Applications of Light Alloys in Rail Transit Vehicles

Guest Speaker: Lin Huaqiang, Senior Principal Researcher, Material Research Laboratory, National High-Speed EMU Assembly Engineering Center, CRRC Qingdao Sifang Locomotive & Rolling Stock Co., Ltd.

Visits to Renowned Enterprises

Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd.

Suzhou Chuangtai Alloy Material Co., Ltd.

Highlights of the event

The AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo has successfully concluded!

We look forward to seeing you again next year! Thank you for your attention and support for this summit~