Key Takeaways of Global Secondary Aluminum Industry Development Forum at AICE 2025

On April 18, the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., and sponsored by Shangli County Keyuan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd., Press Metal International Ltd., Delta Metal (Holdings) Limited, Jinqiao Light Alloy Technology (Jiangmen) Co., Ltd., and other entities as forum title sponsors, Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jialang Industrial Co., Ltd. as forum co-organizers, and supported by various specially invited supporters, conference supporters, conference acknowledgment units, and media partners, successfully concluded at the Suzhou International Expo Center in Jiangsu!

The summit featured multiple sessions, including the Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, Aluminum Melting and Casting Technology Forum, Aluminum Die Casting Industry Development Forum, Supply and Demand Exchange - Domestic and International Aluminum Scrap Supply and Demand Forum, Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Industry Development Forum, Main Forum, Aluminum Industry Chain Sustainable Development Forum, Global Secondary Aluminum Industry Development Forum, and Industrial Aluminum Extrusion Forum. As the annual pinnacle event for the global aluminum industry, this conference, with the strategic pillars of "Global Vision, Industry Insights, Green Future," brought together over a hundred international authoritative experts, academic giants, leading entrepreneurs, and government representatives to build a platform for intellectual exchange. The conference focused on core topics such as aluminum market trend analysis, price trend forecasting, supply-demand pattern dissection, business opportunity matching, and cutting-edge technology exchanges, conducting in-depth discussions from multiple dimensions to set the direction for industry development. Attendees directly addressed industry pain points, explored paths for industrial innovation, and unlocked new paradigms for clean and sustainable development around key themes such as green and low-carbon transformation and intelligent upgrading. Through innovative drive and cross-industry thinking collisions, the conference fostered consensus, integrated resources, and actively responded to global climate change and environmental governance challenges. This event established a high-end dialogue and resource integration platform, empowering industrial upgrading with wisdom and injecting strong momentum into the high-quality development of the global aluminum industry, jointly drawing a new blueprint for the industry's future.

In addition, SMM meticulously prepared roundtable interview sessions across multiple forums, inviting many renowned industry experts and corporate executives to engage in intense intellectual collisions on various hot topics, including the green transformation of the aluminum industry - the development and outlook of the low-carbon aluminum market, internal and external challenges - exploring new paths for aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil enterprises in the fog, roundtable interview: discussing new models for integrated die-casting cooperation from a supply chain perspective, China's aluminum industry from a global perspective, analysis of factors influencing aluminum prices in 2025 and market forecasts for the second half of the year, building a global green aluminum ecosystem (ESG aluminum prices, CBAM), and the market business models and overseas investment opportunities of global secondary aluminum.

Speech Topic: Innovative International Cooperation in the New Era - Jointly Promoting High-Quality Development of the Global Secondary Aluminum Industry

Speaker: Wei Liu, Vice President of the Secondary Metals Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association

Speech Topic: Risk Prevention and Control Strategies for Imported Secondary Aluminum Raw Materials as Solid Waste

Speaker: Bingyan Zhou, Senior Engineer at the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences

Panel Discussion: Market Business Models and Overseas Investment Opportunities in the Global Secondary Aluminum Industry

Moderator: Xiaolei Liu, Big Data Director at SMM

Guest: Ting Liu, Deputy General Manager of Win-Win Metal Industries, US

Mingqiao Lin, Deputy Sales Director of Dazheng Metals (Holdings) Co., Ltd.

Xingyao Wang, CEO of GLD ALLOYS (M) SDN. BHD.

Speech Topic: ADC12 Futures - Investment Opportunities and Risks

Speaker: Rong Wang, Assistant Director and Chief Researcher at Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute

Speech Topic: Interpretation of Mexico's Secondary Metal Export Policies

Speaker: Wenceslao Manzano Hernandez, President of DIMEXA HOLDINGS PTE. LTD.

Speech Topic: 2025 China Secondary Aluminum Market Analysis and Price Assessment Methodology

Speaker: Limin Zhang, Senior Analyst of Secondary Aluminum at SMM

1. Overview of the Aluminum Scrap Industry Chain

Supply Side - Old Scrap Has Experienced Explosive Growth in Recent Years

►SMM Analysis:

•The factors influencing old aluminum scrap are numerous. Currently, the recycling of old aluminum scrap mainly comes from social scrap collected over an average period of 10-20 years, involving fields such as construction, transportation, power, packaging, and durable goods. Among these, construction and transportation are the dominant sources. In recent years, as more aluminum scrap gradually enters the recycling cycle and policies such as "trade-in" are introduced, old scrap has entered a phase of explosive growth.

•New aluminum scrap mainly comes from aluminum production and the off-cuts and defective products generated during downstream rolling and casting processes. Additionally, some scrap from end-use industries during usage is also high-quality aluminum scrap. This portion of aluminum scrap is primarily influenced by the annual consumption of aluminum.

Supply Side - Imported Raw Material Supplement Increases Year by Year

Since the implementation of the new standards in 2020, as traders have adapted to the new standards, aluminum scrap imports have gradually rebounded.

►SMM Analysis:

•In 2018, other aluminum scrap (760200090) was adjusted to the "Catalog of Restricted Imports of Solid Waste Usable as Raw Materials." From July 1, 2019, the import of aluminum scrap was completely banned.

•In 2020, secondary cast aluminum alloy raw materials that comply with the "Secondary Cast Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials" (GB/T 38472-2019) standard are not considered solid waste and can be freely imported.

•On October 24, 2024, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the General Administration of Customs, and four other departments issued the "Announcement on Regulating the Import Management of Secondary Copper and Copper Alloy Raw Materials, Secondary Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials." Secondary copper and aluminum raw materials that meet the requirements of the annex are not considered solid waste and can be freely imported. The announcement took effect on November 15, 2024. According to customs data, the total imports for 2024 were 1.785 million mt, up 1.65% YoY compared to 2023.

•From January to February 2025, aluminum scrap imports were 323,000 mt, up 12% YoY. Driven by relaxed policies and increased demand, imports are expected to show a mild growth trend for the year, but the growth rate may be constrained by international market competition and the inversion of domestic and overseas price spreads.

Supply Side - Aluminum Scrap Import Policies Transition from Regulation to Optimization

►SMM Analysis: The "Announcement on Regulating the Import Management of Secondary Copper and Copper Alloy Raw Materials, Secondary Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials" has removed obstacles to the import of secondary aluminum raw materials in China, providing a policy basis for legal and compliant imports. SMM expects that aluminum scrap imports in 2025 may show a restorative growth. However, as the production of old and new scrap in China increases, domestic aluminum scrap supply will play a significant role, reducing dependence on overseas aluminum scrap. In addition to the increase in domestic aluminum scrap supply, overseas secondary aluminum processing capacity has also shown growth in recent years. Overseas aluminum scrap resources are entering a period of high demand growth, and some overseas aluminum scrap resources are being consumed locally, leading to a decline in opportunities for entering China.

Demand Side - Secondary Aluminum Alloy Demand Slows Down, Plate/Sheet and Extrusions Become New Engines

►SMM Analysis:

The downstream demand for aluminum scrap in China is mainly for producing secondary aluminum alloys, manufacturing remelting billets for extruded aluminum profiles, and adding some aluminum scrap in the aluminum plate/sheet and strip industry.

In recent years, the capacity expansion in China's secondary aluminum industry has been significant, and aluminum scrap supply has been tight. According to SMM data, the domestic demand for secondary aluminum in 2024 was approximately 12.79 million mt, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 13% from 2020 to 2025.

The growth rate of aluminum scrap consumption for secondary aluminum alloy ingots has slowed down, while the demand for secondary wrought alloys has increased year by year, continuing to drive the growth rate of the entire aluminum scrap industry. According to SMM data, in 2024, the consumption of aluminum scrap in the domestic secondary aluminum alloy industry accounted for 59% of total consumption, down 17 percentage points from 2019, while the consumption of aluminum scrap for remelting billets accounted for about 24%, up 6 percentage points from 2019, and the consumption of secondary plate/sheet increased significantly by 11 percentage points.

Policy Empowers Green Development, China's Secondary Aluminum Industry Enters a Golden Development Period

Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's secondary aluminum industry has entered a golden period of policy development. Relevant policies have been intensively introduced, accelerating the national low-carbon process, promoting the carbon peak in the nonferrous metals industry, and accelerating the development of the secondary aluminum industry, while also injecting new momentum into the green and sustainable development of the aluminum industry.

It also reviewed some policies promoting the secondary aluminum industry from 2021 to 2025.

2. Current Status of the Secondary Aluminum Alloy Market

Increasing Concentration of Capacity in the Secondary Aluminum Alloy Industry

Enterprises are mainly concentrated in east China, south China, and south-west China.

Supply Pressure Rises, Growth Rate of New Capacity in Secondary Aluminum Alloy Slows Down

►SMM Analysis:

According to SMM statistics, in 2024, there were 28 planned and newly built secondary cast aluminum alloy projects in China, involving a capacity of 2.05 million mt. Among them, 16 projects were actually put into production, with new capacity of 1.32 million mt, and the total industry capacity reached 17.62 million mt.

In terms of the distribution of new capacity, Anhui, Sichuan, and Yunnan ranked in the top three. Anhui, due to its active development of the NEV industry, has gathered many OEMs and parts companies, attracting secondary aluminum plants to build new capacity here or shifting the production center in east China from Jiangsu and Zhejiang to Anhui.

Q1 2025 Sees a Surge in New Secondary Aluminum Projects, but Actual Volume is Limited

►SMM Analysis:

In Q1 2025, the total new secondary aluminum capacity in China was 2.66 million mt, including about 560,000 mt of new secondary cast aluminum alloy capacity and about 1.7 million mt of new secondary wrought aluminum alloy capacity, with secondary wrought aluminum products being favored. Compared to the same period last year, the number of new projects has increased, but most are in the environmental assessment or new construction phase, with limited actual new capacity. As projects are gradually completed and put into production, the supply in the secondary aluminum market is expected to continue to increase significantly.