Overseas Thermal Demand Ignites Export Engine for Prebaked Anode, While Weak Raw Material Market Dampens Price Increase Momentum [SMM Analysis]

SMM, April 30:

According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in March 2025 reached 192,600 mt, up 0.02% YoY and down 9.86% MoM. A rough calculation shows that the average export price of prebaked anode in March 2024 was approximately $786.16/mt, up 17.07% YoY and up 15.14% MoM. In Q1 2025, China's cumulative prebaked anode exports totaled 582,600 mt, up 21.29% YoY.

From the perspective of domestic export regions, prebaked anode exports in 2025 were concentrated in Shandong, Hunan, and Jiangsu provinces. Shandong province led with cumulative exports totaling 440,500 mt, accounting for 76% of the total. Hunan province followed with cumulative exports of 55,300 mt, accounting for 9%, and Jiangsu province with cumulative exports of 47,500 mt, accounting for 8%.

From the perspective of export countries, the main export destinations for domestic prebaked anode in 2025 were Malaysia, Canada, and the UAE, accounting for approximately 48% of total exports. Among them, total prebaked anode exports to Malaysia reached 110,000 mt, accounting for 19% of the total, down 6.83% YoY. Total prebaked anode exports to Canada were approximately 99,200 mt, accounting for 17% of total exports, up 37.6% YoY. Total prebaked anode exports to the UAE were approximately 72,300 mt, accounting for 12% of total exports, up 4.13% YoY.

Overall, prebaked anode export orders performed well in Q1 2025, particularly those to Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Canada, with notable increases. Additionally, orders to Malaysia saw a significant decline, mainly due to reduced demand from aluminum enterprises in Malaysia following a sudden production halt caused by an accident, which impacted their capacity. According to SMM, export orders performed exceptionally well in 2025, primarily due to increased demand driven by new capacity additions and capacity recoveries at some overseas aluminum enterprises. Additionally, SMM learned that Rusal has initiated capacity optimization measures since the end of 2024, reducing overall aluminum production by 10%. These production cuts were evenly implemented across various plants in Siberia and other regions, without closing any plants or halting production entirely. Therefore, it is expected that export orders to Russia will slightly decline in the future, although current data does not yet reflect this trend. In Q1 2025, domestic prebaked anode prices increased significantly, supported by soaring raw material prices, and overseas order prices also rose substantially in line with raw material prices. In March 2025, export order prices increased by 17.07% YoY. Moving into Q2, the raw material side for prebaked anode has shown weakness, with support loosening, and export order prices are expected to shift from rising to falling.