National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The PMI in April was 49%, with manufacturing enterprises mainly focused on domestic sales maintaining overall stability in production and operation.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April today (April 30). Affected by factors such as the rapid changes in the external environment, the manufacturing PMI in April pulled back MoM, but high-tech manufacturing and other related industries continued to maintain expansion, and the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises mainly focused on domestic sales remained generally stable. China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points MoM. From the perspective of key industries, the overall market demand for new growth drivers maintained a steady and increasing momentum, and domestic market demand maintained relatively good growth. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing in April was 51.5%, significantly higher than the overall level of the manufacturing sector, continuing a good development trend. The new orders index for the consumer goods manufacturing sector also remained at the critical point of 50%, indicating a relatively good release of domestic market demand in the consumer goods manufacturing sector. From the perspective of enterprise expectations, the expected index of production and operation activities in April was 52.1%, continuing to be in the expansion territory. From the perspective of the non-manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing sector as a whole continued to maintain expansion, with positive performances in activities related to investment, consumption, and new growth drivers. The business activity index for the service sector in April was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points MoM, but still above the critical point. Among them, activities related to residents' tourism and leisure performed well, and industries related to the information service sector remained active.

The manufacturing PMI pulled back in April

The non-manufacturing business activity index continued to maintain expansion

—Interpretation of China's Purchasing Managers' Index for April 2025 by Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics

On April 30, 2025, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's Purchasing Managers' Index. In response, Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation.

In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points MoM; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.4% and 50.2%, respectively, continuing to remain in the expansion territory.

I. The manufacturing PMI pulled back

In April, affected by factors such as the high base formed by the relatively rapid growth of the manufacturing sector in the early period and the rapid changes in the external environment, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, falling below the critical point.

(1) Both production and demand slowed down. The production index and the new orders index were 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, a decrease of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points MoM, indicating a pullback in both manufacturing production and market demand. From an industry perspective, the two indices for the agricultural and sideline food processing, food, beverage, refined tea, pharmaceutical, and other industries were all at or above 53.0%, with relatively rapid releases in production and demand; the two indices for the textile, textile and garment, metal products, and other industries pulled back significantly, all falling below the critical point.

(2) High-tech manufacturing continued to improve. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 51.5%, significantly higher than the overall level of the manufacturing sector, with both its production index and new orders index at or above 52.0%, indicating a continued good development trend for high-tech manufacturing. The PMIs for the equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high energy-consuming industries were 49.6%, 49.4%, and 47.7%, respectively, a decrease of 2.4, 0.6, and 1.6 percentage points MoM, with varying degrees of decline in their prosperity levels.

(3) The price indices decreased. Affected by factors such as insufficient market demand and the recent continuous decline in the prices of some bulk commodities, the purchasing price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index were 47.0% and 44.8%, respectively, a decrease of 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points MoM, indicating an overall decline in the market price level of the manufacturing sector.

(4) The expected index remained in the expansion territory. The expected index of production and operation activities was 52.1%, continuing to be in the expansion territory. Some industry enterprises had relatively strong confidence in their recent development, with the expected indices of production and operation activities for the food, beverage, refined tea, automotive, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and other industries all at or above the relatively high prosperity interval of 58.0%.

II. The non-manufacturing business activity index continued to maintain expansion

In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points MoM, but still above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector as a whole continued to maintain expansion.

(1) The prosperity level of the service sector continued to expand. The business activity index for the service sector was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points MoM, but still above the critical point. From an industry perspective, the business activity indices for the air transport, telecommunications, radio, television, and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, insurance, and other industries were all above the relatively high prosperity interval of 55.0%, with relatively rapid growth in total business volume; the business activity indices for the water transport, capital market services, and other industries fell below the critical point. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 56.4%, continuing to be in the relatively high prosperity interval, with most service sector enterprises having relatively strong confidence in market development.

(2) The construction sector continued to maintain expansion. The business activity index for the construction sector was 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points MoM, but still in the expansion territory. Among them, the business activity index for the civil engineering construction sector was 60.9%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points MoM, indicating that with the orderly advancement of engineering project construction in various regions, the construction progress of civil engineering projects had accelerated. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 53.8%, with construction enterprises maintaining an optimistic outlook for recent market development.

III. The composite PMI output index continued to be in the expansion territory

In April, the composite PMI output index was 50.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points MoM, but still above the critical point, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises as a whole continued to maintain expansion. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the composite PMI output index were 49.8% and 50.4%, respectively.

Overall, the composite PMI output index has remained above the critical point since January 2023, indicating that China's overall economic output has continued to expand, and the fundamental trend of long-term improvement has not changed. Affected by factors such as the rapid changes in the external environment, the manufacturing PMI pulled back in April, but high-tech manufacturing and other related industries continued to maintain expansion, and the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises mainly focused on domestic sales remained generally stable. From a global perspective, there are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars. Affected by the increased uncertainty in the trade environment, the prosperity levels of the manufacturing sectors of major economies are generally in the contraction territory. The US manufacturing PMI for March released by the Institute for Supply Management was 49.0%, and the preliminary PMIs for the manufacturing sectors of the eurozone, the UK, and Japan for April released by relevant institutions were all below the critical point. In the next stage, it is necessary to earnestly implement the spirit of the April 25 meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and respond to the uncertainty of rapid changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development.