Insights into Recent Developments in the Iberian PV Market from the Perspective of Power Outages

On April 28, 2025, Spain and Portugal experienced a massive power outage, causing critical infrastructure such as transportation, communications, and healthcare to be paralyzed. Neighboring regions, including southern France, were also briefly affected. The outage began around 12:15 PM local time and lasted nearly 10 hours, with power gradually restored by around 9:00 PM that evening.

Behind this incident, we observe the rapid development of the solar power industry, yet the new PV installations still fall short of expected targets. Driven by sustainable energy generation, electricity prices in Europe have remained low, with negative electricity prices emerging, which has suppressed the development of PV installation projects, leaving the actual installed capacity far from meeting the requirements to achieve the 2030 targets. As contradictions escalate, how can the future of PV undergo transformation?

What exactly caused the power outage?

Behind this major incident, the first reason to be ruled out is "power shortage." Since April, with a large amount of solar and wind power entering the grid and demand not particularly robust, there has been an oversupply of electricity, leading to negative electricity prices in Portugal and Spain, the lowest in all of Europe.

After ruling out this reason, various parties have offered differing explanations:

1. Portugal's grid operator, REN, believes that abnormal oscillations may be related to extreme temperature changes in Spain, triggering a chain reaction that ultimately led to the power outage.

2. Eduardo Prieto, Director of Grid Services in Spain, stated that network issues caused a system collapse in the power grid.

3. Stephen Jarvis, Assistant Professor of Environmental Economics at the London School of Economics, indicated that there were no abnormal weather conditions on that day, and system failures were likely a more significant cause due to supply-demand imbalance in electricity.

More notably, this catastrophic power outage occurred just six days after Spain celebrated its national grid achieving "100% renewable energy operation on a weekday" for the first time, raising questions about the stability and feasibility of the energy transition. Phil Hewitt from energy data agency Montel pointed out that Spain's high proportion of renewable energy and limited connections with neighboring countries may have exacerbated the consequences of this grid oscillation. These diverse perspectives guide us to focus on the development of renewable energy in both countries.

Rapid Development of Solar Power in Spain and Portugal

According to grid operator REN, solar power accounted for 10% of Portugal's renewable energy generation in 2024, with the largest increase at 37%. Similarly, in 2024, renewable energy accounted for 57.5% of Spain's electricity production, with wind energy contributing the largest share, while PV solar accounted for 18.3%. However, the national grid operator, Red Eléctrica de España (REE), reported that the installed capacity of large-scale PV power stations will soon surpass that of wind farms, and PV solar power in Spain is expected to exceed wind power, becoming the largest renewable energy source in the country. Thus, solar power has become a significant component of renewable energy.

A Significant Gap Between 2030 PV Targets and Reality

Despite the rapid development of solar power, the PV installed capacity in both countries is far from achieving the 2030 targets. Spain's PV installed capacity was 2.65 GW, 1.94 GW, and 1.431 GW from 2022 to 2024, respectively, indicating a market decline for two consecutive years. Jon Macías, President of the Spanish Renewable Energy Business Association, believes that the main reasons for the decline include the end of incentives from the EU's Next Generation program and the pullback in electricity prices following the energy crisis in recent years—despite PV technology costs reaching historic lows. If this downward trend continues, Spain may fail to achieve its 2030 target of 19 GW of self-consumption PV installations. This outcome is also negatively impacted by electricity surplus and excessively low electricity prices. As a buyer's market for power purchase agreements (PPAs), with negative electricity prices becoming increasingly common in Spain, some financing institutions are reluctant to provide loans to PV projects without long-term fixed power sales contracts, making the achievement of the 2030 PV targets even more uncertain. Portugal aims to install 20.4 GW of solar power by 2030, but by 2024, it had only accumulated 3.7 GW (AC) in this sector.

The Future of the PV Dilemma in Spain and Portugal

The rapid development of renewable energy generation has kept European electricity prices low, leading to oversupply. Negative electricity prices, in turn, suppress investor funding for PV projects. Facing increasingly challenging 2030 targets, how PV will develop and break through in Spain and Portugal is worth continuous attention.

How to Address New Challenges

1. Policy Incentives: The Spanish Renewable Energy Business Association calls on the government to simplify administrative procedures, enhance grid connection convenience, and provide at least a 25% reduction in corporate or personal income taxes to stimulate market growth.

2. Electricity Price Reform: The Regional PPA Trading Director at Swiss consulting firm Pexapark suggests limiting the number of negative electricity price hours covered by PPAs to stabilize investment confidence in new energy assets.

3. Integration of PV with Energy Storage: Combining new energy power stations such as PV with energy storage to mitigate the risks of new energy entering the market.

4. Grid Upgrades: To address the challenges posed by a high proportion of renewable energy grid connections, grid upgrades have become a core task in the energy transition of Spain and Portugal, enhancing their capacity to absorb wind and solar power.