Domestic and Overseas Inventory Both Undergoing Destocking, SHFE Tin Price Remains Fluctuating Rangebound [[SMM] Tin Futures Brief Commentary]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract (SN2506) as of April 29, 2025

As of today's close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) settled at 261,560 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.02% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The intraday trading range was 259,540-263,350 yuan/mt. Trading volume and open interest contracted MoM, with market sentiment remaining cautious. The most-traded LME tin contract closed at $32,200/mt, up 0.16%.

Inventory Update: SHFE tin warrants decreased by 116 mt to 8,606 mt, while LME tin inventory fell by 180 mt to 2,665 mt.

Spot Market: Trading activity in the spot market was sluggish today. However, as the Labour Day holiday approaches, despite SHFE tin prices remaining at elevated levels, downstream and end-user enterprises still have a limited willingness to restock, awaiting more favorable purchasing opportunities.

Domestic Policy Support: The Political Bureau meeting in China accelerated the issuance of special-purpose bonds and the construction of the "East Data, West Computing" hub, with expectations of infrastructure and computing power demand providing sentiment support for tin prices.

Pre-Holiday Rigid Demand Support: As the Labour Day holiday approaches, some downstream enterprises have initiated stockpiling, with orders for PV welding strips and AI servers maintaining resilience.

Trading Strategy: Maintain a fluctuating trend approach in the short term, closely monitoring the progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations. If macro headwinds materialize, prices may test the 255,000 support level; if ore supply shortages persist, a weak rebound may test the 265,000 resistance level post-holiday.