The General Office of the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the 29th, stating that the Ministry of Finance plans to conduct the first renewal issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (Phase II) for 2025. The renewed treasury bonds are 30-year fixed-rate coupon bonds, with a total face value of 71 billion yuan in competitive tendering, and no additional bidding will be conducted for Category A members. The coupon rate of the renewed treasury bonds remains the same as that of the previously issued treasury bonds of the same maturity, at 1.88%.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] In terms of supply, the impact from HRC maintenance this week was 40,600 mt, unchanged WoW. Next week, the impact from HRC maintenance is expected to be 112,600 mt, an increase of 72,000 mt WoW. Short-term supply will remain at a high level. Demand side, restocking demand before the holiday was released during the weekend and part of the week, but prices fluctuated significantly, leading to relatively cautious restocking overall. Cost side, steel mills may have expectations of restocking raw materials before the holiday, but with limited increases in pig iron output, the support from raw materials is neutral. Overall, the imbalance in HRC fundamentals is relatively small, and inventory before the holiday maintains a good downward trend. Currently, there are expectations that the timing of the actual demand decline will be postponed, and there are still expectations for macro policy efforts. However, in the short term, the time window before the holiday is short, and the most-traded contract is expected to fluctuate rangebound. During the holiday, overseas risks still exist, and it is recommended to maintain a light position.

[SMM Daily Rebar Review: Labour Day Holiday Approaches, Will Construction Steel Prices Remain Weak?] Today, rebar futures fluctuated downward, closing at 3,100, down 1.21% from the previous trading day. On the spot cargo side, quotes in most regions loosened, with declines ranging from 10 to 30 yuan/mt. Market sentiment significantly weakened compared to the previous two days, and trading atmosphere was poor. Additionally, as restocking before the holiday was largely completed, traders mostly maintained a wait-and-see attitude, and overall trading performance was average throughout the day.

[Operating Rate of Steel Mills Using Externally Purchased Billets (SMM Survey)] According to the SMM survey, as of April 29, the operating rate of steel mills using externally purchased billets, which mainly produce construction steel, was 34.64%, up 12.5 percentage points from the operating rate at the end of March, and up 9.14 percentage points YoY.

[SMM survey: Rebar and coiled rebar production in Central China's rolling lines shifts from decline to growth as Labour Day holiday approaches] During the survey period (April 22 - April 28), the capacity utilisation rate of rebar rolling lines in Central China increased slightly; the operating rate and capacity utilisation rate of wire rod rolling lines both increased.

[SMM Weekly Maintenance Statistics] According to SMM statistics, for the week (April 26 to May 2), the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron production was...

Zou Lan, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on April 28 that the PBOC would implement RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in a timely manner based on the domestic and overseas economic situation and the operation of financial markets, to maintain ample liquidity, leverage the dual functions of the monetary policy toolkit in terms of both aggregate and structural aspects, create new structural monetary policy tools, and provide targeted financial support in key areas focused on stabilizing employment and promoting growth. The PBOC is also exploring ways to enrich its policy toolkit and will introduce incremental policies in due course to help stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations.

【SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary】Yesterday, rebar futures maintained a fluctuating trend, closing at 3,129, up 0.61% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, prices in some regions rose slightly, with increases ranging from 10 to 30 yuan/mt. The futures market lacked sustained performance, and market sentiment weakened somewhat, with overall trading volume being average. On the supply side, there has been strong demand for billet exports recently, with profit margins higher than those for rebar. Some manufacturers have nearly filled their billet orders for May-June, and there are expectations of reduced finished steel production. Additionally, many blast furnace steel mills have recently announced new maintenance plans, which may alleviate the supply pressure for finished steel after the holiday. On the demand side, influenced by the pullback in the morning session, market enthusiasm has diminished, with end-user purchases primarily driven by immediate needs. Overall, the current fundamental situation for construction steel is moderate. However, with intensified competition in the futures market and increased market caution, it is expected that construction steel prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.