Approaching Labour Day holiday drives downstream enterprises to restock; spot market transactions may heat up this week [[SMM] Tin Futures Brief Comment]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract (SN2505) as of April 28, 2025

As of today's close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) settled at 260,570 yuan/mt, down 0.63% from the previous trading day. The intraday fluctuation range was 259,680-264,000 yuan/mt, with a trading volume of 12.556 billion yuan. Market sentiment remained cautious.

​​US-China Tariff Impasse​​: The US's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries has triggered market risk aversion, intensifying fluctuations in the US dollar index and weighing on non-ferrous metal prices. However, US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently stated that "high US-China tariffs are unsustainable," hinting at the possibility of localized easing, which has somewhat alleviated market concerns over escalating trade frictions. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain regarding the pace of policy implementation, leading to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments.

​​Ore Supply Tightness​​: The 40% tin concentrate processing fee in Yunnan is at a historical low. Coupled with delays in the production resumption in Myanmar's Wa region and recent disruptions from a 7.9-magnitude earthquake, market concerns over short-term supply have intensified.

​​Pressure on Traditional Demand​​: Growth in PV welding strips has slowed due to the US's tariff hikes on Southeast Asian solar products. Traditional solder exports have declined sharply due to the US's tariff reductions on Chinese consumer electronics, while the difficulty in recycling scrap tin has further constrained demand elasticity.

​​Spot Market​​: Trading activity in the spot market was relatively robust today. As the Labour Day holiday approaches, most downstream and end-user enterprises plan to initiate restocking, combined with some just-in-time procurement, leading to an increase in spot market trading volume compared to last Friday.

​​Trading Strategy​​: Maintain a sideways movement strategy in the short term, closely monitoring developments in US-China tariff policies. If macro headwinds materialize, prices may test the 255,000 yuan/mt support level. If ore supply tightness persists, a rebound may test the 265,000 yuan/mt resistance level.