[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On April 28, domestic refined nickel prices declined significantly amid volatile external macro environment

Published: Apr 28, 2025 13:51 (GMT+8)

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SMM Nickel News on April 28:

Macro News:

(1) The final value of the US one-year inflation rate expectation surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% this month, the highest level since 1980, marking a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points or more in inflation expectations for four consecutive months. Long-term inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April. The immediate forecast for core CPI inflation stands at 2.941%. Although this figure is lower than the core PCE inflation rate, it remains above the US Fed's long-term target.

(2) Sources said that the European Central Bank's (ECB) policymakers are increasingly confident in cutting interest rates in June in response to the continued decline in inflation, but will not implement a significant interest rate cut. Last week, several ECB Governing Council members attended the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings, discussing the potential deterioration of the eurozone and global economies due to US tariffs. Meanwhile, the latest economic data released in the eurozone also reflect this phenomenon. As for inflation, there is no indication that it has worsened due to tariffs for the time being.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price ranges from 125,600 to 127,950 yuan/mt, with an average price of 126,775 yuan/mt, a decrease of 175 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for the mainstream spot premiums of Jinchuan No.1 nickel is 2,000-2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,150 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of Russian nickel is 100-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 200 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened slightly lower in the morning session, with the lowest price dipping to 125,500 yuan/mt. As of 11:30, the closing price was 125,770 yuan/mt, up approximately 0.06% from the settlement price of the previous trading day.

Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in June have intensified, coupled with the improvement in US manufacturing data, putting pressure on LME nickel prices denominated in US dollars. Currently, nickel prices are influenced by a combination of multiple macro factors, including the Sino-US tariff game, policy adjustments in Indonesia, and tightening US dollar liquidity, with cost support and surplus pressure coexisting.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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