[SMM Midday Review of Spot Aluminum: SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates in Morning Trading, with Regional Differences in Transaction Volumes] Inventory side, according to SMM's data on aluminum ingot inventory in three domestic regions, the inventory of aluminum ingots in these three regions stood at 512,000 mt on April 29, a destocking of 15,800 mt from the previous day. In the short term, the downward space for backwardation before the holiday is relatively limited. However, as we enter May after the holiday, downstream consumption is expected to weaken to varying degrees. It is anticipated that the pace of inventory destocking will slow down, and backwardation will struggle to rise.

According to SMM statistics, in terms of domestic aluminum billet inventory in two regions, the inventory of aluminum billet in Guangdong was 86,300 mt, and that in Wuxi was 21,700 mt, totaling 108,000 mt, representing a combined decrease of 100 mt MoM. This morning, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract continued to fluctuate at highs, with aluminum prices in east China rebounding above 20,000 yuan/mt again. As the Labour Day holiday approached, suppliers held firm on their processing fee quotes, and downstream buyers' enthusiasm for purchasing increased due to pre-holiday stockpiling demand, leading to an improvement in market trading sentiment. In addition, some suppliers were cautious about shipping due to cost side and holiday factors, resulting in a shortage of 90 aluminum billets in the Nanchang region of east China and a widening of the processing fee spread. Today, the aluminum billet market in Foshan reported processing fees of 330/380 yuan/mt; the Wuxi market reported processing fees of 350/450 yuan/mt; and the Nanchang region reported processing fees of 400/450 yuan/mt. (Unit: yuan/mt)

Background: South Korea boasts well-developed electronics, automotive, and aerospace industries, which generate substantial demand for aluminum ingots. For instance, in automotive manufacturing, aluminum ingots are used to produce engine blocks and auto body structural components, contributing to vehicle lightweighting, improved fuel economy, and enhanced performance. In the electronics industry, aluminum ingots are utilized to manufacture electronic product casings and heat sinks. However, South Korea's domestic aluminum ingot production falls short of meeting the demands of these industries, necessitating significant reliance on imports to bridge the gap. Currently, South Korea ranks as the largest importer of aluminum ingots in Asia, excluding China. SMM has introduced the FCA Korea aluminum ingot spot premium to serve as a reference for market settlement.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears Continues, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs] From a macro perspective, a series of relevant policies introduced domestically have played a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market, and the favorable macroeconomic environment in China remains unchanged. In overseas markets, Trump's policy stance has been inconsistent, and there are still many uncertainties from his stance to the actual implementation of policies. On the fundamental side, the cost side of the aluminum industry has remained stable, while the demand side has shown signs of structural recovery. Benefiting from the continuous influx of new orders in May, there has been an increase in stocking demand for raw materials such as aluminum ingots and aluminum billets ahead of the holiday. The reduction in domestic aluminum ingot inventory has provided support for aluminum prices, but suppliers have been actively selling at highs, causing spot premiums to pull back. Overall, whether substantive easing in Sino-US trade can be achieved remains to be seen over time. In the short term, the imbalance between bullish and bearish factors is still evident. As the transition between the off-season and peak season approaches and the PV installation rush nears its end, there is an expectation of a decline in subsequent orders for the downstream aluminum industry. There is insufficient momentum for aluminum prices to rise sharply again, and it is expected that domestic aluminum prices will fluctuate mainly before the holiday.