As the Sino-US Trade War Continues to Escalate, What Lies Ahead for Imported Secondary Copper Raw Material?

On April 10, 2025, the US government announced an increase in the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Chinese goods exported to the US to 125%. China's relevant departments promptly adjusted the tariff hike rate specified in the "Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on Adjusting Tariff Measures on Imports Originating from the US" (Announcement No. 5 of 2025) from 84% to 125%. Given that US goods exported to China are no longer marketable under the current tariff levels, if the US continues to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, China will disregard such measures.

Thereafter, all goods imported from the US will be subject to tariffs as high as 125%, including secondary copper raw material. By 2024, China's imports of secondary copper raw material reached 2.25 million mt, showing a steady increase over the past five years. Due to the long-term tight supply of copper elements in China, the supply-demand gap needs to be supplemented by imports. The escalating trade war between China and the US will inevitably have a significant impact on the imports of secondary copper raw material. Monthly import data shows that before 2025, the US accounted for approximately 15% to 20% of China's monthly imports of secondary copper raw material, with the US consistently ranking first in monthly imports, exceeding the second place by about 10,000 mt. The US's repeated tariff imposition on China without justification has undoubtedly harmed domestic US secondary copper raw material traders. As a major consumer of US secondary copper raw material, China's imposition of a 125% tariff on US imports has led Ningbo secondary copper raw material importers to announce that they will suspend imports from the US.

As the primary consumer of secondary copper raw materials in the US, China not only has a massive demand for copper but also maintains relatively high prices globally. Over the years, China has continuously improved its smelting and reprocessing technologies for secondary copper raw materials, leading the world in handling various types of such materials. Although Europe, Japan and South Korea, and the US itself are increasingly emphasizing the recycling of secondary copper raw materials, their demand for these materials still cannot compare to that of China, a major consumer, due to limitations in domestic consumption.

According to the latest news, Trump has set a one-month deadline to reach an agreement with China to end the Sino-US tariff war before the US credit goes completely bankrupt, and has mentioned the possibility of reducing tariffs on Chinese goods for the first time. His exact words were: "I think we can reach an agreement within the next three to four weeks, and all of this (tariffs) can come to an end." If this move is implemented, the conclusion of the Sino-US trade war will allow the US to resume normal imports of secondary copper raw materials, and China's imports of secondary copper raw materials will return to normal levels.