【SMM Steel Market Morning Brief】The Probability of the US Fed Maintaining Interest Rates Unchanged in May Rose to 96.3%

★Macro★

01 ★★★ 【The CPC Central Committee and the State Council Issued the "Opinions on Implementing the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones"】

The CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Implementing the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones." The document proposes to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of foreign trade, promote the optimization and upgrading of goods trade, invigorate the development of service trade, and support the innovative development of digital trade.

02 ★★★ 【The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council Requires Strengthening the Overall Arrangement of Funds】

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council recently made specific arrangements, requiring central state-owned enterprises to take proactive actions, strengthen the overall arrangement of funds, ensure timely payments, and legally negotiate early payments for small and long-aged accounts of small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby intensifying support for upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain.

03 ★★★ 【The Probability of the US Fed Maintaining Interest Rates Unchanged in May Rises to 96.3%】

According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the US Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 96.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.7%. The probability of the US Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged by June is 22.1%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 75.0% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 2.8%.

★Industry and Downstream★

01 ★★★ 【Orders Scheduled Until 2030, Jiangsu Shipbuilding Industry Forges a Resilient Industry Chain】

According to Securities Times, Jiangsu is the largest province in China's shipbuilding and offshore engineering industry, with exports of various ships totaling 104.2 billion yuan last year, up 59% YoY, ranking first in the country. Recently, reporters learned from several shipyards that the delivery periods for some Jiangsu shipbuilders have been scheduled until 2030. "In 2024, New Times Shipbuilding achieved invoiced sales revenue of 16.068 billion yuan, an increase of 28% YoY. According to data released by the globally renowned shipping consultancy Clarksons Research, the company's new orders topped the global list," said Liu Haijin, general manager of New Times Shipbuilding in Taizhou, Jiangsu. In 2025, New Times Shipbuilding will seize the historical opportunity of the booming shipbuilding industry, aiming to deliver 30 ships and accelerate the construction of new energy ship intelligent manufacturing projects. Data confirms the confidence in New Times Shipbuilding's development. In 2024, the company delivered 34 ships, totaling 4.2707 million DWT, setting a record high in the number of ships delivered and ranking among the top three in the country in terms of total shipbuilding completion. By the end of 2024, the company had 162 orders on hand, totaling 23.05 million DWT, ranking among the top three globally, with orders scheduled until 2029.

02 ★★★ 【Ministry of Commerce: Intensify the Implementation of the Home Appliance Trade-in Policy】

The Ministry of Commerce stated that since the intensified implementation of the home appliance trade-in policy in August 2024, consumers have cumulatively purchased over 100 million trade-in home appliances, including over 40 million in 2025.

03 ★★ 【To Curb the Surge in Imports, India Announces a Temporary 12% Protective Tariff on Certain Steel Products Starting from the 21st of This Month】

The Indian Ministry of Finance issued an announcement stating that starting from April 21, India will impose a temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports to curb the surge in imports. In this regard, the Indian Steel Minister stated that the safeguard duty on steel will protect the manufacturing industry, ensure fair competition, and boost the domestic industry.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕【POSCO to Participate in Hyundai Steel's $5.8 Billion US Factory Project】POSCO issued a statement on April 21, signing a memorandum of understanding with Hyundai Motor Group to participate in the construction of Hyundai Steel's US factory and strengthen cooperation in the fields of steel and charging batteries. Last month, Hyundai Steel announced plans to invest $5.8 billion by 2029 to build an integrated steel mill in Louisiana, US, with the goal of starting production in the same year.

⭕Shandong Boxing Victory Technology Co., Ltd. transferred 400,000 mt of coking compliance capacity indicators to Shandong Tiexiong Metallurgy and Shandong Guangfu Group, and it is currently in the public announcement stage.

⭕On April 18, four steel enterprises announced the progress of ultra-low emission transformation and evaluation monitoring. As of now, 189 steel enterprises have been announced on the CISA website.

⭕On April 18, the Eurasian Economic Commission announced the final ruling of the first sunset review of anti-dumping duties on galvanized steel sheets originating from China and Ukraine, determining that the cancellation of measures would lead to the continuation of dumping and industrial damage, thus extending the anti-dumping duties of Resolution No. 209 of December 3, 2019, for five years. The involved product tax codes include 7210490001 and five other codes.

⭕According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on April 18, the SCFI index fell 24.1 points to 1,370.58 last week, a weekly decline of 1.7%, ending the previous four-week consecutive increase.