Demand and Cost Squeeze from Both Sides, Battery Prices Decline [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM April 25 News:

Silica

Price

The silica market prices remained stable this week, but actual transactions retained some room for negotiation. Currently, the mine-mouth price of high-grade silica in Hubei is 350-420 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica in Inner Mongolia is 320-370 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica in Guangxi is 360-380 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price of high-grade silica in Guizhou is 290-330 yuan/mt.

Production

Remains in a loose state.

Demand

Affected by the continued downturn in the silicon metal market, most silicon enterprises hold a pessimistic attitude towards future market changes, and the operating rate has dropped to a low level. Therefore, procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. In the short term, silica demand will remain weak.

Silicon Metal

Price

Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was 9,500-9,800 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was 9,800-10,000 yuan/mt. The most-traded SI2505 futures contract fluctuated around 8,800-8,900 yuan/mt. Downstream orders were released as needed, and the center of spot transaction prices moved down MoM.

Production:

The main continuous contract of silicon metal futures operated below 9,000 yuan/mt. Silicon enterprises faced significant production pressure, compounded by weak demand and the impact of low-priced spot and futures sources. The operating rate of silicon enterprises is expected to be weak.

Inventory

Social Inventory: SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions on April 18 was 612,000 mt, flat WoW. Among them, social ordinary warehouses were 137,000 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW, and social delivery warehouses were 475,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot parts), up 1,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Wafer

Price

The market price of N-type 18X wafers is 1.1-1.2 yuan/piece, and N-type 210RN wafers are 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece. Prices dropped back slightly this week, with high-priced resources facing sales difficulties. Market sentiment is weak, and solar cell plants have limited procurement enthusiasm due to subsequent production cut plans.

Production

Domestic wafer production in April is expected to be 58GW+, and domestic wafer production in May is expected to be slightly adjusted downward due to quarterly quota adjustments, with leading manufacturers reducing their operating rates.

Inventory

Solar cells have recently started to cut production, and market bearish sentiment is strong. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, and overall order signing is limited. Wafer inventory has increased.

Solar Cell

Price

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 cells (23.2% and above efficiency) is 0.3-0.3 yuan/W, with prices declining and few orders. The PERC210 cell market has no trading volume.

Topcon183 cells (25% and above efficiency) are priced at 0.28-0.29 yuan/W; Topcon210RN cells are 0.275-0.29 yuan/W; Topcon210 cells are 0.29-0.3 yuan/W. Both market demand and cost support for cells are insufficient, and prices still have downside room.

HJT direct sales are few, and integrated manufacturers are self-sufficient.

Production

PV cell production in April reached 63-64GW, up more than 13% MoM. Topcon210R and 210N cell production increased by more than 36% MoM. Cell supply is sufficient, and inventory buildup began in mid-to-late April, with a tendency to cut production in May.

Inventory

Cell inventory continues to rise.

PV Film

Price

PV-grade EVA

The price of PV-grade EVA is 11,550-11,950 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price of PV-grade POE is about 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt, and POE prices remain stable.

PV Film

The current mainstream price of 420g transparent EVA film is 5.46-5.67 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film is 5.96-6.17 yuan/m², 380g EPE film is 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and 380g POE film is 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production

PV-grade EVA production increased by 8.22% MoM in April, and PV film production increased by 9.07% MoM.

Inventory

Petrochemical enterprises currently have low inventory, and the transaction pace of PV-grade EVA has slowed recently.