Short-Term Macro Dominance, Tin Prices Fluctuate and Adjust [Institutional Commentary]

The US dollar index weakened, and overseas metal markets rose across the board overnight, with the LME three-month tin price increasing by 1.27% to $31,900/mt. The domestic night session opened higher and continued to rise, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract closing at 263,250 yuan/mt. The spot market was generally quiet in the morning, with downstream buyers making limited purchases and traders maintaining normal sales. Smelters continued to stand firm on quotes, while spot premiums experienced minor fluctuations. Recent fundamental changes have been insignificant, and domestic consumption has shown some resilience with tin prices at relatively low levels. However, the negative impact of US tariff policies on end-use product exports is gradually becoming apparent, which is unfavorable for overall consumption in the later period. Recent supply-side changes have been relatively small, and smelters have not shown significant production cuts. With the resumption of tin ore production in the DRC and Myanmar, tin ore supply is expected to rebound in the later period. Recent improvements in sentiment on the macro front suggest that tin prices may mainly experience震荡调整. Short-term operations should be cautious. Pay attention to changes in macro policies in the later period. (Source: Xinhu Futures)