The ferrous metals series rebounded slightly this week. On the news front, at the beginning of the week, the PBOC kept the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Korea Customs Service stated on Monday that an increasing number of companies were attempting to disguise foreign products as Korean exports, with most of these products originating from China, to evade the comprehensive tariffs imposed by US President Trump. The Korea Customs Service has established a special task force to prevent illegal export activities. US President Trump delivered a public speech on Tuesday, April 22, acknowledging that the current tariffs on Chinese exports to the US were excessively high and anticipated a significant reduction in rates. This marked a softening of Trump's stance on his signature tariff policy, alleviating market pessimism over the tariff war...

【SMM Rebar Daily Review: Weak Supply-Demand Balance with Shortages in Some Regions】This week, rebar prices fluctuated upward, with the nationwide average price at 3,199 yuan/mt, up 31 yuan/mt WoW...

US President Trump delivered a speech in public on Tuesday, April 22, acknowledging that the current tariffs on goods imported from China by the US are excessively high, and he anticipated a significant reduction in the rates...

【SMM Wuhan Rebar Inventory: Inventory Continues to Decline】As of April 25, the social inventory of construction steel in Wuhan was 145,000 mt, a decrease of 20,000 mt compared to April 18, down 12.12% WoW.

On the news front, domestically, the macro focus is on whether the Politburo meeting at the end of April will introduce policies that exceed expectations. Internationally, under the prevalence of trade protectionism, the policy risks related to tariffs are relatively high. On the supply-demand fundamentals, although steel mill profits have pulled back, they remain above the break-even line, and production enthusiasm remains undiminished, with plate and HRC production expected to continue rising. Against the backdrop of high production, HRC apparent demand in May is slightly cooler compared to the same period in previous years. As the off-season effect deepens, the supply-demand imbalance is gradually accumulating, and the risk of inventory buildup is expected to increase in mid-to-late May. Cost side, with pig iron peaking and pulling back, iron ore prices are in the doldrums, and coke prices are also mostly fluctuating and stabilizing. In the short term, steel mill costs remain relatively firm. Overall, considering that the macro meeting is unlikely to introduce significantly favorable policies, and despite the impact of overseas risks on market sentiment, overall exports in May still show strong resilience. Therefore, HRC prices are expected to face slight downward pressure in May, with a relatively small risk of a deep decline. The most-traded contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3,050-3,250.

The "Golden March and Silver April" expectations fell short. Can steel prices rebound in May? The annual average spot rebar price in 2024 was 3,575 yuan/mt, while the average price from January to April 2025 was 3,310 yuan/mt, with the price center overall down by 265 yuan/mt.

【Steel Mill Price Adjustment】On April 25, Shougang Changzhi adjusted the construction steel prices: rebar, coiled rebar, and wire rod remained stable.

【Steel Mill Price Adjustment】On April 25, the guidance price for building materials from Anhui Changjiang Steel remained stable for rebar, coiled rebar, and wire rod.