Under the "Restrictive Spell" of Tariffs: Review of China's Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Imports and Exports in March and Outlook for April

SMM, April 22:

According to customs data, China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy in March were 224.05 mt, up 47.96% MoM, with a YoY decline of 29.15%. The cumulative exports from January to March were 907.26 mt, up 11.77% YoY. Meanwhile, China's imports of unwrought zinc alloy in March were 3,536.77 mt, down 8.7% MoM, with a YoY decline of 13.01%. The cumulative imports from January to March were 10,991.44 mt, up 1.36% YoY.

The MoM increase in China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy in March was primarily driven by the shipment of orders affected by the Chinese New Year in February, leading to a rise in exports. By region, the top three countries for China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy in March were Vietnam (113.83 mt, 50.81%), Bangladesh (73.64 mt, 32.87%), and Cambodia (21.11 mt, 8.98%). The top three countries for imports of unwrought zinc alloy were South Korea (1,255.51 mt, 35.50%), Japan (704.39 mt, 19.92%), and Australia (583.1 mt, 16.49%).

From the current situation, the "tariff tightening" still has a significant impact on China's die-casting zinc alloy exports. According to the current understanding, the export orders of end-use products of die-casting zinc alloy have been somewhat affected by tariff disturbances recently, with some orders to the US being canceled or postponed. Meanwhile, companies are cautious about the development of subsequent export orders, believing that the impact of tariffs will gradually become apparent in 1-2 months. In the short term, there has been no significant "rush to export" situation in the die-casting zinc alloy market. Against the backdrop of the US suspending tariffs on other regions for 90 days, if domestic companies engage in a large amount of re-export trade to retain export orders, China's export data for unwrought zinc alloy in April will show remarkable performance. Additionally, as of now, based on the RMB exchange rate trend in April, the center of the RMB exchange rate has declined, which may provide some support for exports. However, if subsequent exports or re-exports are hindered, China's die-casting zinc alloy exports may show a weakening trend. In the long term, the "surplus" products may flow back to the domestic market, further dividing the domestic market. At that time, China's imports of unwrought zinc alloy are expected to be somewhat compressed as well.