The Sino-US trade war continues to escalate. Where is the future of imported secondary copper raw materials? [SMM Analysis]

SMM April 20 News: On April 10, 2025, the US government announced an increase in the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Chinese goods exported to the US to 125%. China's relevant departments promptly adjusted the tariff hike rate stipulated in the "Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on Adjusting Tariff Measures on Imported Goods Originating from the US" (Announcement No. 5 of 2025) from 84% to 125%. Given that US goods exported to China are no longer marketable under the current tariff level, if the US continues to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, China will not respond. Subsequently, all goods imported from the US will be subject to a tariff as high as 125%, including secondary copper raw material. By 2024, China's imports of secondary copper raw material reached 2.25 million mt, showing a steady increase over the past five years. Due to the long-term tight supply of copper in China, the supply-demand gap needs to be filled by imports. The escalating US-China trade war will inevitably have a significant impact on the imports of secondary copper raw material. According to monthly import data, before 2025, the US accounted for about 15% to 20% of China's monthly imports of secondary copper raw material, and the monthly imports from the US consistently ranked first, exceeding the second place by about 10,000 mt. The US's repeated tariff imposition on China without any basis undoubtedly harms US domestic secondary copper raw material traders. As a major consumer of US secondary copper raw material, after China imposes a 125% tariff on US imports, Ningbo secondary copper raw material import traders stated they would suspend imports from the US. China, as the primary consumer of US secondary copper raw material, not only has a huge demand for copper but also relatively high prices globally. With years of continuous improvement in smelting and processing technology for secondary copper raw material, China has surpassed other countries in handling various types of secondary copper raw material. Although Europe, Japan and South Korea, and the US itself are increasingly focusing on the recycling of secondary copper raw material, their demand is still incomparable to China's due to domestic consumption limitations. According to the latest news, Trump has set a one-month deadline to reach an agreement with China to end the US-China tariff war before the US credit completely collapses, and for the first time mentioned the possibility of reducing tariffs on China. His exact words were: "I think an agreement can be reached within the next three to four weeks, and all these (tariffs) can be ended." If this move is implemented, the end of the US-China trade war will allow US secondary copper raw material imports to return to normal, and China's imports of secondary copper raw material will also return to normal levels. 》Order to view SMM metal spot historical prices 》Click to view SMM copper industry chain database