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Macro-wise, tariff policies have entered a "pause-game" phase. Since April 14, US tariff policies have become increasingly surreal: the policy contradictions reflect the Trump administration's attempt to balance "protecting industries" and "curbing inflation," but the market has not fully priced in the risk of tax increases after the "transition period."Sino-US tensions continue to escalate,while undercurrents of US-Europe soft decoupling are emerging.Structural imbalances among various parties remain unresolved. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have strengthened, but the divergence between the Fed and the Trump administration over the timing of rate cuts remains significant.US inflation stickiness, global trade contraction, and US Treasury liquidity pressures persist. Domestically,China's Q1 economic growth exceeded expectations, with consumption showing an upward trend. LME copper returned to above $9,200/mt this week, while SHFE copper also gradually rose back to above 76,000 yuan/mt.
Fundamentally, spot TC in the copper concentrate market continued to decline this week, with mines reportedly trading TC with traders below -$60/mt during the CESCO conference in Chile. Due to the pullback in sulfur prices, smelting acid prices have shown a downward trend, further narrowing smelters' profit margins. In terms of copper cathode, domestic consumption increased significantly this week, with social inventory destocking exceeding 100,000 mt so far in April. End-user cargo pick-up sentiment was evident, and spot premiums continued to rise.
Looking ahead to next week, macro-wise, the conflict between the Trump administration and the US Fed is intensifying, and trade frictions caused by tariffs are making the risk of global economic cooling more apparent, limiting the upside room for copper prices. However, fundamentally, consumption shows signs of recovery, and with both bullish and bearish factors at play, copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $9,000-9,300/mt, while SHFE copper is expected to fluctuate between 75,000-77,000 yuan/mt. Spot-wise, significant domestic destocking has led to the cancellation of a large number of warrants, but short-term liquidity remains tight, and suppliers' sentiment of holding back cargoes in anticipation of higher premiums has increased. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2505 contract are expected to fluctuate between premiums of 100-220 yuan/mt.
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