Downstream demand diverges, medium-heavy rare earth prices may continue to fluctuate at highs. [SMM Analysis]

Published: Apr 17, 2025 16:21 (GMT+8)

Save

【SMM Analysis: Downstream Demand Diverges, Medium-Heavy Rare Earth Prices May Continue to Fluctuate at Highs】Current downstream demand shows divergence: on one hand, long-term demand from NEVs and wind power supports the strategic position of rare earths, while robotics and the low-altitude economy may become new growth points for downstream rare earth demand; on the other hand, magnetic material factories, facing high cost pressure, choose to "tighten their wallets," resulting in post-holiday order growth falling short of expectations and leading to more cautious raw material purchases by downstream players.

SMM April 17 News: Current downstream demand shows divergence. On one hand, long-term demand from NEVs and wind power supports the strategic position of rare earths, while humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy may become new growth points for downstream rare earth demand. On the other hand, magnetic material manufacturers, facing high cost pressures, are "tightening their wallets," with post-holiday order growth falling short of expectations, leading to more cautious raw material purchases by downstream players.

It is understood that global NEV sales are expected to reach 10 million units in 2025, which will significantly increase the demand for rare earth permanent magnets. Additionally, the humanoid robot market may add a demand of 200,000-400,000 mt, further supporting rare earth prices. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that after China's export restrictions, overseas markets will face shortages of medium-heavy rare earths, and overseas rare earth prices are expected to rise significantly in the short term. Similar to China's previous export controls on minor metals such as germanium and indium, the price spread between domestic and overseas markets may further widen, driving the price center of domestic medium-heavy rare earths upward.

Future trend predictions suggest that in the short term, medium-heavy rare earth prices will maintain an upward fluctuation driven by policy tightening, demand growth, and rising costs. However, risks of price volatility may arise from international trade frictions, economic fluctuations in major consumer countries, accelerated rare earth resource development in other countries, and technological breakthroughs in alternative materials.

》Apply for a free trial of the SMM metal industry chain database

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

Sep 30, 2026 17:18 (GMT+8)

SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment for September 30

Sep 30, 2026 17:18 (GMT+8)

Sep 30, 2026 15:26 (GMT+8)

Scrap Prices Remain Stable, Holiday Market Trading Thins [SMM Recycled Rare Earth Weekly Review]

[SMM Recycled Rare Earth Weekly Review: Scrap Prices Stable, Market Activity Slows Ahead of Holiday] Overall, Pr-Nd scrap prices remained stable this week, with a slight upward adjustment near the weekend. Recycling enterprises turned cautious about chasing higher prices after wrapping up pre-holiday stockpiling, while suppliers showed low willingness to sell. Market activity gradually cooled as the holiday approached. In the short term, the market is expected to remain quiet during the holiday with little improvement in trading, and Pr-Nd scrap prices are likely to maintain a stable pattern.

Sep 30, 2026 15:26 (GMT+8)

Sep 30, 2026 15:21 (GMT+8)

Pr-Nd prices hold firm with a steady rise, trading tends to thin before the holiday [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Pr-Nd Prices Hold Firm with Slight Gains; Trading Activity Slows Ahead of Holiday] Terbium oxide was at 6.52-6.55 million yuan/mt, with downstream acceptance of high prices remaining weak, negotiation centers edging down, and overall market offer activity mediocre with thin trading. Gadolinium oxide was at 190,000-192,000 yuan/mt, with downstream inquiries persistently weak, and suppliers showing little willingness to adjust prices, mostly holding prices steady and waiting. Holmium oxide was at 635,000-637,500 yuan/mt, consolidating, with limited changes in supply-demand fundamentals. Erbium oxide was at 670,000-675,000 yuan/mt, with downstream inquiries weak and trading follow-through insufficient. Yttrium oxide (5N) was at 58,000-60,000 yuan/mt, and yttrium oxide (3N) at 28,000-30,000 yuan/mt, with demand mediocre, downstream follow-through insufficient, and prices lacking upward momentum.

Sep 30, 2026 15:21 (GMT+8)