SGE Silver（T+D） Price Rises for Eight Consecutive Days, How Does the Spot Market Perform?

Published: Apr 16, 2025 15:07

Source: SMM

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Since mid-April 2025, the silver TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has experienced eight consecutive gains. The market trend has been fluctuating at highs, influenced by factors such as global trade war risk aversion and US Fed policy expectations. On the spot market side, the circulation of spot cargo decreased due to Shanghai futures silver deliveries, leading suppliers to hold back on sales. Buyers in the end-use consumer market actively inquired about prices, but actual transactions were limited. Future attention should be paid to the impact of global economic data and geopolitical situations on silver prices.

I. Silver Market Overview
Since mid-April 2025, silver prices have bottomed out and started a fluctuating upward trend, with the domestic gold exchange's silver T+D price recording eight consecutive gains. The reasons behind this oversold rebound include both the safe-haven demand under the shadow of a global trade war and the market's anticipation of changes in US Fed policies.

II. Impact of Tariff Policies
SMM believes that the impact of tariffs is twofold. On one hand, it has triggered investor panic over the potential economic recession caused by a global trade war, which has formed a support level for silver prices. After the price correction, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts has intensified, making the price more likely to rise than fall. On the other hand, the liquidity of spot silver has weakened, and corporate hoarding of silver has somewhat affected market supply.

III. Spot Market Transactions and End-Use Consumption
In the consumer market, the continuous rise in silver prices this week coincided with the delivery of the SHFE silver 2504 contract, leading to a reduction in market circulation. Despite active inquiries and purchases by buyers, suppliers' willingness to sell has decreased. On April 16, after the spot-futures price spread between TD and SHFE silver 2506 contracts widened, the actual transaction price of national standard silver in Shanghai may have been at a premium of +5 to +6 over TD.

IV. Market Outlook
In summary, driven by both safe-haven demand and industrial necessity, silver prices in April 2025 have shown a fluctuating trend at highs, more likely to rise than fall. In the short term, silver prices may continue to test previous resistance levels, supported by strong fundamentals and rising gold prices. However, attention should still be paid to disturbances caused by global economic data and geopolitical situations. In the long term, the supply-demand imbalance in the silver market is unlikely to improve quickly. After short-term negative factors dissipate, it is possible that silver prices may break through previous resistance levels and continue a fluctuating upward trend.

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