How Do Tariffs and Anti-Dumping Measures Affect Domestic Galvanized Sheet Exports? [SMM Analysis]

SMM April 16 News:

According to SMM, galvanized sheets, as a key downstream consumption area for zinc, account for over 40% of total zinc consumption. Customs data shows that China's galvanized sheet exports have grown strongly in recent years, with cumulative YoY growth rates of 29% and 17% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a growth rate of around 19% in January-February 2025. As an exporter of galvanized sheets, strong export demand has supported domestic galvanized sheet companies' orders amid the ongoing downturn in the domestic real estate market. However, the trend of deglobalization has become more pronounced in recent years, with escalating tariff disputes between China and the US and an increase in anti-dumping investigations by some overseas countries. How do these factors affect China's galvanized sheet exports？

First, US-China tariffs may impact some transshipment orders. Historical data from the General Administration of Customs shows that direct exports from China to the US account for no more than 0.3%, making these direct export orders negligible for China. However, according to SMM, some galvanized sheets exported to Southeast Asia are transshipped to Europe and the US. From 2022 to 2024, China's exports of galvanized sheets to Southeast Asian countries remained around 31%. Although the US recently proposed a 90-day tariff exemption for countries other than China, and some companies have taken advantage of this window to "rush exports," the impact of tariffs on export orders is limited in the short term. In the long term, as US tariffs on other countries gradually take effect, these transshipment orders may weaken.

Second, anti-dumping investigations against China also affect domestic export orders. Since last year, overseas countries have successively launched anti-dumping investigations against Chinese galvanized sheets, and such incidents have continued this year. On April 1, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Decision No. 914/QD-BCT, imposing provisional anti-dumping duties on certain galvanized products originating from China and South Korea. The provisional anti-dumping duty on products from China is 37.13%, while that on products from South Korea ranges from 13.7% to 15.67%. Southeast Asia is a major export region for Chinese galvanized sheets, and demand growth in this region has supported the strong performance of China's galvanized sheet exports in recent years. If anti-dumping tariffs in these countries are actually implemented, they may have a more direct impact on China's galvanized sheet exports in the future.

Additionally, China has recently been cracking down on fake export declarations. Since the end of March, some regional customs enterprises have required VAT invoices for export declarations, leading to concerns among some companies about the implementation of new regulations and resulting in short-term "rush export" behavior. According to SMM, market sentiment is highly concerned about this fake export issue. If the new regulations are implemented, export orders for some galvanized sheet factories in Boxing may decline.

In summary, although some companies in Boxing currently report high overall operating levels, this is largely due to the gradual fulfillment of previous "rush export" orders. In the long term, the implementation of tariffs, anti-dumping measures, and domestic regulations against fake exports is expected to have a certain inhibitory effect on China's galvanized sheet export performance.