Zinc Oxide Imports and Exports Showed Mixed Performance in January-February, How Will China's Zinc Oxide Exports Develop Under Tariff Pressure?

SMM News, April 16:
According to SMM data, over the past decade (January 2015-February 2025), China's zinc oxide exports reached 47,048 mt, while imports totaled 17,617 mt. As a net exporter of zinc oxide, China's cumulative zinc oxide exports increased by 30.76% YoY in January-February, while imports declined by 23.75% YoY. The current increase in exports is mainly driven by downstream companies rushing to export due to concerns about subsequent tariffs, while the decrease in imports is primarily due to the Chinese New Year holiday in February, when many downstream companies were on holiday, leading to reduced domestic consumption demand and a shift towards consuming domestic products, resulting in a decrease in imports.

According to the data, the top three countries for China's zinc oxide exports in January-February were Vietnam (466.81 tons), Thailand (452.95 tons), and Japan (170.05 tons), while the top three countries and regions for imports were Canada (242.73 tons), South Korea (195.01 tons), and Taiwan, China (170.66 tons).

From the above data, it can be seen that China's zinc oxide imports and exports performed differently in January-February. So, how will China's zinc oxide imports and exports develop in the future?

First, from the perspective of current macro policies:

Recently, the market has been affected by the US' reciprocal tariffs, and concerns have spread. On April 11, the White House stated that the tariffs imposed on China have reached 145%, which undoubtedly has a certain impact on the export of various bulk commodities from China to the US. However, according to customs data, from 2020 to 2024, China's total zinc oxide exports reached 81,899.79 tons, but only 731.52 tons were sent to the US, accounting for only about 0.89% of the total. At the same time, Trump has implemented a policy of suspending reciprocal tariffs on most economies in the world and providing a 90-day negotiation period. This also provides a certain opportunity for China's zinc oxide re-export trade. Therefore, from a macro perspective, although China is currently under the pressure of high tariffs from the US, the share of China's zinc oxide exports to the US is small. Coupled with the current 90-day tariff suspension period provided by the US to most countries, it is expected that there will still be certain opportunities for China's zinc oxide exports in the short term. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the export volume will increase during this period due to the rush to export.

Secondly, from the feedback of domestic enterprises, they are still quite worried about the subsequent export orders and are rather cautious. All enterprises believe that under the repeated tariff disturbances, the export orders of zinc oxide and its terminal products such as semi-steel tires and full-steel tires may face considerable pressure. Although the current US policy of suspending tariffs on most economies for 90 days provides some opportunities for enterprise orders, in the long run, the potential impact of tariffs may still gradually become prominent.

Therefore, under the current huge tariff disturbances, there may still be certain "export rush" opportunities for China's zinc oxide exports. However, if the timeline is extended, and trade frictions among countries continue to heat up and re-export trade is restricted, the export volume of zinc oxide will show a decreasing trend.