[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin and LME Tin Prices Rise Simultaneously Amidst Expectations of Myanmar's Production Resumption and Off-Season Demand] This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) continued to be in the doldrums, opening at 262,320 yuan/mt and temporarily closing at around 261,490 yuan/mt at midday, with an intraday increase of 0.22%. Short-term support below is noted at 260,000 yuan/mt. Market sentiment remains cautious, with a significant net outflow of funds. The decline in open interest reflects that both bulls and bears are tending to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,729/mt last Friday night, initially fluctuating rangebound and testing the low of $9,710/mt before gradually moving higher and probing $9,799/mt near the session close, eventually settling at $9,794.5/mt, up 1.2%.

SHFE tin prices opened lower in the night session and then fluctuated upward, while the spot market remained sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) TSMC's 2-nanometer production is set to commence as scheduled in the second half of this year. Industry sources indicate that due to the overwhelming demand from major customers like Apple and Intel for the first wave of 2-nanometer chips, coupled with the upcoming adoption by Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Nvidia, TSMC's 2-nanometer supply is severely constrained. As a result, TSMC plans to significantly expand its production capacity, aiming to increase its monthly 2-nanometer wafer output from 40,000 units at the end of this year to 100,000 units next year, a 1.5-fold increase, with the potential to double again to 200,000 units by 2027. (Bullish ★) (2) On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly held a symposium on the NEV industry to deploy further work on standardizing the competitive order of the NEV industry. The meeting called for strengthened supervision and inspection, including in-depth promotion of product price monitoring, product consistency supervision and inspection, shortening of supplier payment terms, and conducting special rectifications of online chaos, product quality supervision and spot checks, and defect investigations to ensure product safety and reliable quality. (Bullish ★) (3) US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick: Confident in reaching an agreement with the EU, with small countries needing to pay a 10% benchmark tariff. Powell has kept interest rates too high.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Treasury Secretary Says Negotiations on Suspending Some Tariffs Between US and China Are Progressing Well, Tin Prices Expected to Hover at Highs] Last week, in terms of international macroeconomic developments, the US Treasury Secretary stated that negotiations on suspending some tariffs between the US and China were progressing well, alleviating market concerns about trade tensions. Additionally, the Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce indicated that Thailand would propose exempting 90% of US goods from tariffs, further boosting market confidence. Domestically, the Ministry of Finance adjusted the consumption tax policy for super luxury cars, imposing a consumption tax on passenger cars and medium and light commercial buses with a retail price of 900,000 yuan or more per unit. This move may affect consumer demand in related industries. From the overall perspective of the tin ore market, the supply-demand relationship remains tight. In terms of supply, tin ore supplies in major producing areas such as Yunnan are tightening. Some smelters may continue to halt production for maintenance or slightly cut production in July, causing continuous disruptions to the supply side. In terms of demand, after the installation rush in the PV industry ended, orders for PV tin strips in east China declined. The electronics industry entered the off-season, and end-users had a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with orders only meeting immediate needs. Demand in other sectors such as tinplate and chemicals remained stable, without showing unexpected growth. In the spot market, despite price fluctuations, downstream purchase willingness remained low, with most buyers adopting a "small-batch, multi-batch" strategy to restock based on immediate needs. The overall market remained sluggish. Overall, it is expected that tin prices will maintain a fluctuating trend next week. Investors should pay attention to domestic and overseas market dynamics and policy changes, and operate cautiously...

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Leads the Gains Amid Supply-Demand Imbalance and Macro Disturbances] As of the midday session on July 18, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) closed at 264,930 yuan/mt, surging by 3,190 yuan (a 1.55% increase) from the previous day. Trading volume exceeded 50,000 lots, reaching a two-week high, with significant capital inflows. The LME tin 3-month contract also strengthened, temporarily closing at $33,195/mt (a 0.38% increase), touching a high of $33,300 during the session, supported by a weaker US dollar and supply concerns.

Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,606.5/mt, initially touched a low of $9,597/mt, then fluctuated upward rangebound, and finally closed at $9,678/mt, up 0.43%, with trading volume at 11,000 lots and open interest at 268,000 lots.

SHFE tin prices opened lower and closed higher in the night session, while the spot market remained sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) The Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on adjusting the consumption tax policy for super-luxury cars. The announcement states that the scope of consumption tax collection for super-luxury cars will be adjusted to "passenger cars and medium- and light-duty commercial buses with a retail price of 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) or above per unit, powered by various types of power (including pure electric, fuel cell, etc.)." For super-luxury cars powered by pure electric, fuel cell, etc., without cylinder capacity (displacement), consumption tax will only be collected at the retail stage. No consumption tax will be collected on the sale of second-hand super-luxury cars by taxpayers. (2) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.N), the world's largest contract chipmaker, announced its Q2 financial results on Thursday, with net profit surging 60.7% YoY, exceeding market expectations and hitting a record high, mainly driven by the surge in semiconductor demand from the AI application sector. The company's net profit from April to June rose to 398.3 billion New Taiwan dollars ($13.53 billion), easily surpassing the market expectation of 377.9 billion New Taiwan dollars. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs: ① Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce: Thailand will propose to exempt 90% of US goods from tariffs. ② British media: The EU plans to impose additional tariffs on US services and export controls as a retaliatory measure after the breakdown of trade negotiations. ③ White House trade advisor Navarro: EU VAT is also a form of subsidy. We hope to see VAT reductions and tariff cuts. ④ Brazilian President Lula: Regulatory and tax measures will be taken against US digital companies.

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) posts three consecutive negative sessions, dipping to RMB 261,700. Tin prices are under pressure amid macroeconomic disruptions and a weak supply-demand dynamic.] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): Closing price: RMB 261,610/mt, down 0.71% (or RMB 1,950) from the previous day. Intraday fluctuations: Opened lower at RMB 262,180/mt, dipped to a low of RMB 260,780/mt, and rebounded slightly in the tail end but remained under significant pressure. Weekly trend: Three consecutive days of decline, with a cumulative drop exceeding 2.5%, approaching the support level of the 60-day moving average.

To ensure consistency between the data and its source and respond to customer feedback, we will uniformly adjust the date display of LME inventory data in our non-ferrous metal database.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Pressured Amid Supply Chain Disruptions, Unable to Offset Off-Season Demand Suppression] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): The most-traded SHFE tin contract (2508) closed at 261,740 yuan/mt in the midday session, down 0.66%. The intraday trading range was 260,640–262,800 yuan/mt, with sluggish trading and a decrease in open interest. LME tin (3-month): Currently quoted at $32,875/mt, down 0.35% on the day; it continued to decline to $32,799/mt (down 1.48%) in the Asian session today, hitting a new low since July.