SMM Analysis: Tin Solder Industry Operating Rate Rebounded Significantly in March, Expected to Maintain High Operating Levels in the Future. In March 2025, the operating rate of tin solder in domestic sample enterprises rebounded to 75.81%, showing a significant improvement compared to February. The recovery in production days: the actual production days in March increased compared to February, coupled with semiconductor industry subsidy policies and the NEV trade-in details (expected to be released in Q2), stimulating downstream stockpiling demand. Home appliance policy stimulus: the "trade-in" policy was introduced, but the increase in production schedules for white goods was concentrated in top-tier enterprises (such as Gree and Midea), and orders for small and medium-sized solder factories did not show significant improvement.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 18 Apr, 2025

SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Refined Tin Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Remain Low, Overall Willingness to Sell Is Relatively Weak: According to SMM's in-depth market survey data, as of this Friday, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at low levels, with a combined operating rate of 56.96%. Yunnan Region: Since the implementation of the mining ban in Myanmar's Wa State in 2023, tin ore imports in Yunnan have continued to decline, and the raw material inventory cycle has been compressed from normal levels to lower levels. Recently, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar (with the epicenter only 200 kilometers from the Manxiang mining area) led to the indefinite postponement of the resumption meeting originally scheduled for April 1, further exacerbating market fears of a supply disruption from Southeast Asian ore sources. Coupled with the slow progress of phased resumption in the DRC, the short-term raw material gap is difficult to bridge. Tin concentrate TCs have fallen to historical lows, and corporate production enthusiasm has declined. Jiangxi Region: Structural disruptions in scrap supply have led to a decline in recycled tin volume in Jiangxi compared to Q4 2024. The US imposition of a 245% tariff on Chinese consumer electronics has impacted exports, and emerging demands such as PV welding strips have yet to fill the traditional gap, resulting in a continued decline in recycled scrap supply. This week, the SHFE tin market remained volatile, with most smelters showing low willingness to sell and adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

SMM Tin Midday Review: Market Concerns Over US Fed Policy Independence and Stability Intensify, Spot Tin Ingot Market Sees Mediocre Trading. As of the midday session on April 18, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2506 contract closed at 256,040 yuan/mt, down approximately 0.33% from the previous night session, with intraday volatility expanding to 3.22%. The contract hit a low of 253,660 yuan/mt during the session, as macro sentiment fluctuations and the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers led to a seesaw market trend.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,133/mt, reaching a high of $9,279.5/mt and a low of $9,111/mt, closing at $9,253/mt (previous close: $9,190.2/mt, up 0.68%).