JPMorgan: Turned Bearish on 2025 Base Metal Prices

Published: Apr 16, 2025 08:25

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On Tuesday, April 15, JPMorgan stated that it has turned bearish on base metal prices in the short term.

JPMorgan estimates that the average copper price in Q2 2025 will be $8,300/mt, with the annual average price for 2025 at $8,812/mt.

The average aluminum price in Q2 2025 is projected to be $2,200/mt, with the annual average price for 2025 at $2,369/mt.

The average nickel price in Q2 2025 is expected to be $14,000/mt, with the annual average price for 2025 at $15,020/mt.

The average zinc price in Q2 2025 is forecasted to be $2,500/mt, with the annual average price for 2025 at $2,646/mt.

JPMorgan noted that weak demand expectations, particularly in Asia excluding China, will lead to a supply surplus of nearly 130,000 mt in the zinc market in 2025.

Due to global trade disruptions and reduced demand for EVs, demand is expected to decline, resulting in a projected increase in the nickel market supply surplus to approximately 260,000 mt in 2025.

JPMorgan recently stated that tariffs have led to downward revisions in economic growth forecasts, increasing the likelihood of a recession this year and resulting in significant downward revisions to metal demand forecasts.

To learn more about the dynamics of the copper industry chain, you are invited to attend the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, which will be held grandly in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025. ~Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream enterprises in the copper industry chain, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, as well as experts from universities and research institutions will gather together. The conference covers mines, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications, encompassing the entire copper industry chain.

At the event, more than 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry.

The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impacts, and market direction. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics such as electrical power transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, a two-day field trip will visit 12 representative enterprises in the copper industry with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt.

The CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo will help you grasp industry trends, expand your network, and explore business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to join us in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025, to gather in the new era of copper and jointly plan for new development!

Market forecast

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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