Macro uncertainties persist, with tin prices mainly fluctuating along with the sector [Institutional Commentary]

【Market Review】

1. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE tin 2505 contract closed down 810 yuan/mt MoM to 258,990 yuan/mt; open interest of SHFE tin decreased by 2,049 lots to 68,587 lots.

2. Spot market: Disturbances in the raw material side persist. Affected by macro sentiment, tin prices fluctuated rangebound in the morning, and smelters' willingness to sell was moderate. Traders' willingness to sell was moderate, with feedback indicating that downstream inquiries have weakened, and just-in-time procurement dominated. Overall trading in the morning was moderate.

【Related News】

1. On April 12, Eastern Time, the US released a relevant memorandum, exempting certain products such as computers, smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and integrated circuits from "reciprocal tariffs." However, the US Commerce Secretary stated that the exemption is temporary, and electronics will be included in the semiconductor industry tariffs. Tariffs for the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries will be introduced within one or two months.

2. On the evening of April 9, Beijing Time, according to the International Tin Association, Alphamin Resources announced that its Bisie tin mine in eastern DRC will resume operations. Previously, due to the approach of non-state armed groups to the mining area, Alphamin suspended operations at the Bisie mine last month. The company has now initiated a "phased resumption" plan, gradually recalling employees and restarting production in phases while closely monitoring the security situation. From January 1 to March 13, before the suspension, the Bisie mine produced 4,270 mt of tin concentrates. Bisie is the world's third-largest tin mine, with a production of 17,323 mt of tin metal in 2024. Benefiting from the Mpama South expansion project completed last year, the company originally planned to increase annual production to 20,000 mt by 2025. The phased resumption of operations at the Bisie mine is expected to alleviate the severe supply tightness originally anticipated in Q2 2025.

4. The pre-resumption meeting originally scheduled for April 1 in Wa State was canceled. The Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration issued a notice on March 26, 2025, scheduling a discussion meeting on the resumption of operations at the Mansiang mine at 8:00 AM on April 1 at the Mansiang office. However, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar on March 28, 2025, prompting the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration to issue a notice on March 31, 2025, postponing the discussion meeting on the resumption of operations at the Mansiang mine.

【Logical Analysis】

The US's delay in tariff deadlines has somewhat alleviated market panic sentiment, and the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated rangebound today. However, given that tariff negotiations among countries are still ongoing, market expectations may fluctuate again at any time. On the fundamental side, the resumption of tin mines in Africa has eased the short-term tight supply of tin ore, but the expected tight supply and demand for the year have significantly eased. Subsequent attention should be paid to mining announcements in Myanmar and whether downstream orders can recover.

【Trading Strategy】

1. Unilateral: With the easing of tight supply and demand expectations and ongoing macro uncertainties, tin prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector, and cautious operation is recommended. 2. Options: Temporarily on hold.

(Source: Galaxy Futures)