Surge in Bauxite Arrivals and Shipments Indicates Strong Import Outlook

SMM April 15 News:

Recent data on April 11 showed a significant increase in the weekly total port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports, reaching 5.7141 million mt, up by 2.5903 million mt compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the weekly total port departures of bauxite from main ports in Guinea decreased by 328,000 mt to 3.9875 million mt, and in Australia by 110,800 mt to 1.0815 million mt.

In the short term, the outlook for domestic bauxite imports remains strong. March saw an average weekly port arrivals of 4.35 million mt, a notable increase from January and February. During the first two weeks of April, the average weekly port arrivals further rose to 4.42 million mt, indicating a potential increase in bauxite imports compared to March.

The increase in bauxite imports is attributed to higher shipments from Guinea and Australia, with expectations of even more influx in the coming months. Bauxite imports from Guinea are expected to rise as shipments from late January to February are received, while the impact of the rainy season in Australia is diminishing, leading to increased shipments.

On the shipments front, the weekly average port departures of bauxite from Guinea in March increased to 3.86 million mt/week compared to February's 3.47 million mt/week. The trend continued in the first two weeks of April with an average of 4.15 million mt/week. This suggests a potential for further increases in domestic bauxite imports in May-June from Guinea.

Overall, the increase in bauxite imports is likely to drive the growth of bauxite supply in China. However, demand for alumina has been declining, which may lead to a surplus in the bauxite market. Coupled with the stocking demand for raw materials from new capacity, bauxite inventories at alumina refineries and ports are expected to rise.