Demand Concerns Persist, SHFE Copper Struggles to Rebound [SHFE Market Closing Commentary on April 15]

SHFE copper opened slightly higher in the morning, with intraday gains narrowing slightly, closing up 0.16%. Market sentiment generally eased, but against the backdrop of escalating trade frictions, demand concerns remain. Although the supply and demand fundamentals of the copper market still provide support, the momentum for futures prices to continue rebounding is limited.

Recently, as global trade disputes have not escalated further, market sentiment has eased compared to earlier periods, and copper prices have rebounded from low levels. However, against the backdrop of ongoing trade frictions, demand concerns persist, and the rebound in copper prices is relatively limited. Everbright Futures stated that with the US government announcing a temporary suspension of tariff hikes on some countries, market sentiment eased, and copper prices experienced a corrective rebound. From the trend, concerns remain, and it is expected that this round of rebound will be difficult to exceed previous high points. In the short term, it is still recommended to buy on dips, especially for downstream copper-using enterprises, paying attention to the sentiment of US stocks and LME copper non-Asian trading sessions.

As of April 14, the spot inventory of copper cathode in the domestic market was 258,900 mt, a decrease of 11,400 mt compared to the 10th. The social inventory of domestic copper cathode continued to destock, with declines in the Shanghai and Guangdong markets and an increase in the Jiangsu market. Due to the relatively low arrivals in the Shanghai market, both domestic and imported, and despite the rebound in copper prices, downstream consumption performance is moderate, leading to a continued decline in inventory. Xinhu Futures stated that during this round of copper price decline, domestic downstream enterprises actively entered the market for procurement, resulting in a significant drop in inventory, and LME inventory also continued to decline. Moreover, copper concentrate TCs have continued to decline, falling below -$30/mt, and the situation of copper ore shortage remains severe. The fundamentals support copper prices.