Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, Tin Prices Fluctuate [Institutional Commentary]

On Monday, the most-traded SHFE tin 2505 contract fluctuated upward during the day but was in the doldrums at night, while LME tin closed lower. Spot market: It was heard that small brands were at a premium of 500-900 yuan/mt for May, Yunzi brands were at a premium of 900-1,200 yuan/mt for May, and Yuntin was at a premium of 1,200-1,500 yuan/mt for May. SMM: As of last Friday, social inventory was 11,662 mt, a weekly decrease of 342 mt. The operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 56.75%, down 0.21% WoW.

Overall, tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, processing fees declined, refined tin smelters faced operating pressure, downstream restocked as needed, and inventory shifted from a four-week buildup to a slight destocking. Although the Bisie mine in the DRC is gradually resuming production, the resumption in Wa State remains uncertain. The imbalance in tin ore supply has eased but not reversed. However, macro risks persist, and downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. With mixed factors, tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

(Source: Jinyuan Futures)