"Do Not Overdepend on the US"! European Executives Begin to Urge: Buy Russian Gas

When the "trade war" replaced the "Russia-Ukraine conflict" as the world's focus, Europe, which three years ago repeatedly stated that it could not rely on Russian natural gas, now seems to be undergoing a 180-degree shift in attitude:

Many European companies are beginning to worry that dependence on the US has become a new weakness, and re-"buying Russian gas" seems to have become a more reasonable option under the current situation!

Yes, even the most imaginative "screenwriter" three years ago during the Russia-Ukraine crisis might not have been able to write such a dramatic "script"...

European executives want to buy Russian gas.

It has been proven that although more than three years have passed since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe's energy security remains fragile.

During the energy crisis from 2022 to 2023, US liquefied natural gas helped fill the supply gap in Europe caused by the withdrawal of Russian gas to some extent. But as US President Donald Trump shook the post-World War II-established US-Europe relations and used energy as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, European companies began to worry that dependence on the US has become a new vulnerability.

Against this backdrop, many executives of large EU companies have recently made statements that would have been unimaginable a year ago: importing some Russian gas from state-owned energy giant Gazprom might be a wise move.

This proposition means that Europe needs to make a major policy shift, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict that broke out in 2022 prompted the EU to commit to stopping Russian energy imports by 2027.

But Europe's current options are extremely limited: negotiations with liquefied natural gas giant Qatar to expand supply have stalled, and although renewable energy deployment has accelerated, it is still not enough to make the EU feel secure.

Didier Holleaux, Executive Vice President of French energy group Engie, said in an interview with the media that if peace in Ukraine is achieved, Russian gas supply could recover to 60-70 billion m³ (including liquefied natural gas).

The French government owns part of Engie, which was previously one of Gazprom's largest customers. Holleaux said that Russian gas might meet 20-25% of EU demand in the future, lower than the pre-war 40%.

Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of French energy giant TotalEnergies, warned Europe against over-reliance on US natural gas. He emphasized in an interview that supply channels must be diversified to avoid over-reliance on one or two sources. Pouyanne predicted, "Europe will not return to the pre-war Russian gas import level of 150 billion m³, but it might rebound to about 70 billion m³."

German public support.

It is worth noting that France, with its large amount of nuclear energy, is one of the most diversified countries in Europe in terms of energy supply. Germany, which relied heavily on cheap Russian gas to drive its manufacturing industry before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, now has fewer options...

The Leuna chemical park in eastern Germany is one of the largest chemical parks in Germany, with companies such as Dow Chemical and Shell having factories here. Previously, the Nord Stream pipeline (destroyed in 2022) met 60% of the local energy demand. Christof Guenther, General Manager of InfraLeuna, the park's operator, said, "We are in a serious crisis and can't wait any longer."

He pointed out that the German chemical industry has been laying off workers for five consecutive quarters, something that has not happened in decades. "Reopening the Russian gas pipeline would lower prices more than any current subsidy plan."

"This is a taboo topic," Guenther added, but many of his colleagues believe it is necessary to use Russian gas again.

In the federal election in February this year, nearly one-third of Germans voted for Russia-friendly parties. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (where the Nord Stream pipeline lands after crossing the Baltic Sea from Russia), 49% of local residents hope to restore Russian gas supply.

"We need Russian gas, we need cheap energy—no matter where it comes from," said Klaus Paur, General Manager of Leuna-Harze, a medium-sized petrochemical manufacturer located in the Leuna park. "We need the Nord Stream 2 pipeline because we have to control energy costs."

Daniel Keller, Minister of Economy of Brandenburg, said that the industry hopes the federal government can find cheap energy. Brandenburg is home to the Schwedt refinery, which is co-owned by Russian oil companies but managed by the German government. Keller said, "We can imagine that after peace in Ukraine is achieved, Russian oil will resume imports or transportation."

The US is no longer reliable.

According to statistics, last year, US natural gas accounted for 16.7% of EU natural gas imports, second only to Norway's 33.6% and Russia's 18.8%. Considering the closure of the Russian gas pipeline through Ukraine at the beginning of this year, the share of Russian gas this year may drop to less than 10%—the rest mainly comes from liquefied natural gas exported by Novatek.

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said last week that it is certain that we will need more liquefied natural gas.

Currently, as Trump wants Europe to reduce its trade surplus with the US, buying more US liquefied natural gas is indeed one of the options the EU might try to appease the White House. However, Tatiana Mitrova, a researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said, The tariff war has also greatly exacerbated Europe's concerns about relying on US natural gas.

Mitrova added, "It is increasingly difficult to see US liquefied natural gas as a neutral commodity: To some extent, it may become a geopolitical tool."

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, also said that if the trade war escalates, there is a risk that the US will slightly restrict liquefied natural gas exports.

A senior EU diplomat who wished to remain anonymous also agreed. He pointed out, No one can rule out the possibility of the Trump administration "using this leverage."

Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said that if US domestic natural gas prices soar due to rising industrial and AI demand, the US might reduce exports to all markets.

In any case, under Trump's leadership, the US, which has clearly become "no longer reliable," Europe may need to prepare for "two hands" in advance...