Macro Pressure and Fundamental Support Lead to Aluminum Price Volatility [Institutional Commentary]

On Monday, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract closed at 19,685 yuan/mt, up 0.31%. LME aluminum rose 0.51%, closing at $2,369/mt. The average spot price by SMM was 19,760 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt, with a discount of 10 yuan/mt. The average spot price by Nanchu was 19,740 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt, with a discount of 30 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on April 15, aluminum ingot inventory stood at 724,000 mt, down 20,000 mt WoW from last Thursday. Aluminum billet inventory in major domestic consumption areas was 226,400 mt, down 8,700 mt WoW from Thursday.

On the macro front, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China's total import and export value of goods trade in Q1 2025 reached 10.3 trillion yuan, hitting a record high for the same period and exceeding 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters, up 1.3% YoY. The US President announced that semiconductor tariff rates would be announced this week. US Fed Governor Waller stated that the Fed might be more patient with smaller tariff ranges, and an interest rate cut could occur in H2. OPEC's monthly report revised down the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.1% to 3% and for 2026 from 3.2% to 3.1%.

The expansion of Trump's tariff exemption list continued to cool market risk sentiment. However, Trump announced yesterday that tariffs would be imposed on semiconductors, and the "tariff storm" has not completely dissipated. Concerns about a global economic slowdown and declining demand remain. On the fundamental side, aluminum ingot inventory continued to increase significantly this week. Downstream purchasing willingness was strong at low price points, and orders from aluminum processing enterprises were moderate, providing fundamental support. Aluminum prices face both macro pressure and short-term support, and a sideways movement is expected in the near term.