Supply of Secondary Copper Raw Material Decreases, Operating Rate of Copper Anode Made from Scrap Expected to Drop in April [SMM Analysis]

Published: Apr 14, 2025 16:46

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【SMM Analysis: Secondary Copper Raw Material Supply Decreases, Operating Rate of Copper Anode Made from Scrap Expected to Decline in April】According to SMM, the operating rate of Chinese copper anode producers was 56.17% in March 2025, up 12.31 percentage points MoM. By raw material, the operating rate of copper anode producers using ore was 69.90%, down 8.44 percentage points MoM, while the operating rate of copper anode producers using scrap was 49.65%, up 20.50 percentage points MoM.

SMM April 14 News: According to SMM, the operating rate of China's copper anode producers in March 2025 was 56.17%, up 12.31 percentage points MoM. By raw material, the operating rate of copper anode producers using ore was 69.90%, down 8.44 percentage points MoM, while that of copper anode producers using scrap was 49.65%, up 20.50 percentage points MoM. (Only refers to the non-self-use copper anode portion.)

In March 2025, the operating rate of China's copper anode producers using ore continued to decline. Amid the ongoing tightness in the copper concentrate market and persistently low spot TC, some producers using ore to make copper anode saw production drop due to raw material and cost issues. However, considering the raw material inventory levels of producers, significant production cuts of copper anode made from ore are not expected in H1 2025. The operating rate of copper anode producers using scrap rebounded sharply in March, mainly due to the rise in copper prices in mid-March and increased supply of secondary copper raw materials domestically. At that time, high copper prices suppressed downstream consumption, leading to poor performance of secondary copper rod prices, prompting many producers to shift capacity to producing copper anodes.

SMM expects the overall operating rate of China's copper anode producers to drop 7.37 percentage points MoM to 48.80% in April 2025. Among them, the operating rate of copper anode producers using ore is expected to rise 0.86 percentage points MoM to 70.76%, while that of copper anode producers using scrap is expected to fall 11.30 percentage points MoM to 38.35%.

The operating rate of copper anode producers using ore is expected to rebound slightly in April. The production schedule of copper anode producers using ore is relatively stable overall in April, with some producers adding copper anode production. However, the operating rate of copper anode producers using scrap is expected to drop significantly due to macro market disturbances. After the Qingming Festival, copper prices plummeted, suppliers held back cargoes, and the supply of secondary copper raw materials declined rapidly. In addition, as a large amount of copper scrap inventory was sold off in mid-to-late March, coupled with a gap in imports from the US, producers faced difficulties in purchasing raw materials and incurred losses. The future direction of copper prices will be a key factor affecting the market. If copper prices fail to rebound, some producers will be forced to cut or halt production after their raw material inventories are depleted.

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