[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Social Inventory Drawdown Exceeds Expectations, Aluminum Prices and Spot Premiums Supported at High Levels] Overall, on the macro side, the domestic favorable atmosphere remains unchanged, while uncertainties persist in overseas macro conditions. On the fundamental side, the unexpected drawdown in domestic aluminum ingot inventory has provided support for aluminum prices and spot premiums. Currently, some industries are expected to weaken during the off-season, but the overall decline is better than anticipated, with demand resilience remaining. Subsequent focus should be on changes in inventory and demand. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade around 20,000-20,500 yuan/mt, while LME aluminum is expected to trade around $2,430-2,490/mt.

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Market Arrivals Expected to Remain Low, Suppliers Show Clear Reluctance to Budge on Prices]

To better serve our customers and enhance the efficiency of the SMM database, we will optimize and adjust the existing classification of the non-ferrous database in June 2025. This adjustment will not involve any changes to the data.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,636.5/mt. It initially rose to a high of $9,645.0/mt, then fluctuated downward.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Disruptions and Supply-Demand Tug-of-War Keep Aluminum Prices Trapped in Short-Term Volatility] On the macro perspective, the minutes of the US Fed meeting indicated that participants unanimously agreed that uncertainties regarding the economic outlook had increased, making a cautious monetary policy appropriate. On the fundamentals side, the overall supply side of the short-term aluminum market remained stable, with no significant changes observed. On the cost side, the price fluctuations triggered by earlier disruptions to bauxite supply from Guinea had gradually eased, and the growth rate of domestic spot alumina prices had significantly slowed down. As the profit margins of alumina enterprises improved, some enterprises were expected to initiate production resumption plans, which might have a certain impact on subsequent market supply. On the demand side, domestic enterprises faced dual pressures from seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties. The operating rates of short-term aluminum processing enterprises continued to decline under pressure. It was necessary to monitor whether downstream export orders could truly improve and offset the anticipated weakening of domestic demand. Overall, despite the relatively low level of aluminum inventory providing some support for aluminum prices, the lack of unexpectedly positive macro factors in the near term made it difficult to drive further price increases. Meanwhile, the off-season pressure on the demand side also limited the upside room for aluminum prices to a certain extent. Therefore, it was expected that aluminum prices would maintain a fluctuating rangebound consolidation pattern in the short term.