SMM Lead and Zinc Summit Forecasts Narrowed Price Range Amid Persistent Supply-Demand Imbalance in 2025

Lead prices were in the doldrums, while secondary lead smelters maintained firm offers due to losses. The mainstream spot order ex-factory prices including tax narrowed the discount to the SMM #1 lead average price by 100 yuan/mt, shifting to a premium of 0–25 yuan/mt, with some smelters halting offers and sales.

Pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream enterprises had largely concluded, and a few had already entered the holiday period, completely suspending procurement. Next week, secondary lead smelters will enter a concentrated wave of production halts and holidays, resulting in sluggish trading activity in the spot market. Offers for spot refined lead orders were sparse, with prices moving in line with the market.

The domestic secondary crude lead market experienced sluggish transactions. As of February 6, 2026, the ex-factory tax-exclusive offers for domestic secondary crude lead stood at 15,250-15,400 yuan/mt. Downstream refined lead and alloy smelters gradually entered the holiday period, showing weak stockpiling willingness. Overseas lead ingot suppliers basically halted transactions with China due to poor consumption in the Chinese market, with only some previously concluded shipments maintaining normal in-transit transportation. The trading atmosphere in the secondary crude lead market will continue to weaken next week.