[SMM Tin Midday Review: Limited Short-Term Supply Increase in Domestic Smelting Sector, SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate at Highs, Suppressing Spot Cargo Transactions] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate at highs in the morning session today. It opened at 266,520 yuan/mt, with narrowed intraday fluctuations, and closed around 265,250 yuan/mt at midday, up slightly by 0.23% from the previous trading day. Open interest decreased slightly to 29,600 lots, with neutral to weak market trading activity. The battle between bulls and bears intensified near the 265,000 yuan/mt threshold.

The US has adjusted tariff hikes on China. SHFE tin prices remain high and range-bound. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory exported nearly 30,000 Model 3/Y units in April, hitting a new high in nearly a year. (Bullish ★) (2) India has approved the establishment of a Foxconn semiconductor joint venture. (Bullish ★) (3) The US adjusted tariff hikes on China at 00:01 AM EST on May 14. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① Sources: The US trade tariff agreements with Japan, South Korea, and India are "close to being finalized." ② Sources: The US is not seeking a depreciation of the US dollar in tariff negotiations. ③ The EU is preparing to impose higher tariffs on imported goods from Ukraine within a few weeks. ④ US media: Trump rewrote trade rules over 50 times in 100 days.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Spot Market Transactions Fluctuate Around 264,000 Yuan/mt, SHFE Tin Prices Show a Sideways Trend at Highs] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) exhibited a fluctuating pattern at highs. During the night session, it surged to 266,100 yuan/mt, driven by macro sentiment, before consolidating sideways. It closed at 265,770 yuan/mt during the daytime session, up 0.92% from the previous day, with a cumulative five-day increase of 1.74%. Open interest increased slightly to 31,500 lots, maintaining a neutral level of market trading activity. Bullish factors: The US April unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate unexpectedly fell to 2.3% (a more than four-year low), coupled with signals from US Fed officials that "interest rate cuts are still possible this year," causing the US dollar index to pull back and boosting risk appetite in the metal market. The phased implementation of the China-US tariff agreement has led to an expected marginal improvement in export demand for electronics, new energy, and other sectors, supporting the risk premium of tin prices...

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 14 May, 2025

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract traded sideways at a high level, with the spot market continuing its sluggish trend] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) traded sideways at a high level. It opened at 265,000 yuan/mt in the morning session, maintaining its high-level sideways trend, and closed at 264,830 yuan/mt at midday, up 0.57% from yesterday. Open interest decreased to 30,600 lots.

OpenAI considers building data centers in the UAE. SHFE tin prices surge and stabilize. [SMM Tin Morning Brief] Macro: (1) SoftBank: Investment in OpenAI may reach US$20 billion. OpenAI considers building data centers in the UAE, with an official announcement potentially coming during Trump's Middle East trip. (Bullish ★) (2) The US Department of Commerce revokes AI chip export control rules from the Biden administration era, possibly shifting to a bilateral negotiation model. (Bullish ★) (3) The year-on-year rate of unadjusted CPI in the US in April unexpectedly fell to a four-year low of 2.3%. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - US Treasury Secretary: The US will bring pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other strategic industries back home. ② India proposes to impose retaliatory tariffs on some US products. ③ Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on the US. ④ US officials: Approximately 20-25 agreements are currently on the trade negotiation table, and the next trade agreement will be announced when Trump returns to the US.

[SMM Monthly Outlook: Weak Fundamentals in Both Supply and Demand, Tin Prices to Experience Short-Term Volatility, "Waiting for the Wind" - Macro Factors May Be the Key to Breaking the Deadlock!] As Alphamin announced the phased resumption of production at the Bisie mine and the successful convening of the Myanmar tin mine production resumption meeting, market expectations for a tight future tin ore supply have improved. However, concerns over uncertainties in global economic growth and demand prospects triggered by tariffs have also suppressed tin prices. Coupled with a significant decline in market risk appetite, tin prices, which hit a new high in early April, have since experienced a notable correction. Ultimately, LME tin prices fell by 14.46% in April, while SHFE tin prices dropped by 9.03% in the same month. Following the sharp decline in April, since entering May, except for notable fluctuations in LME tin prices during the first two trading days of the month, both LME tin and SHFE tin have predominantly fluctuated rangebound. As of around 15:37 on May 13, LME tin prices fell by 0.09%, closing at $32,545/mt, with a temporary monthly increase of 3.83% in May; SHFE tin prices rose by 0.37%, closing at 262,070 yuan/mt, with a temporary monthly increase of 0.1% in May.

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures: Macro Sentiment Boosts Prices Initially, Fundamentals Suppress Volatility; SHFE Tin Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back] On May 13, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) closed at 262,070 yuan/mt in the daytime session, up 0.37% from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 25.55 billion yuan. Total open interest reached 30,700 lots. Prices fluctuated sharply during the day, exhibiting a pattern of "macro sentiment boosting prices initially, while fundamentals suppressing volatility"...