Macro Sentiment Improved, SHFE Copper Rebounded Sharply [SHFE Market Closing Review on April 10]

SHFE copper opened higher in the morning, with intraday gains continuing to expand, closing up 3.86%, and futures prices returned above the 75,000 level. Global trade frictions did not escalate further, market risk appetite improved, and SHFE copper saw a significant rebound. Additionally, domestic refined copper social inventory continued to destock.

According to Securities Times, the US has temporarily suspended tariffs for 90 days on countries that do not take retaliatory measures, leading to a noticeable improvement in market risk appetite. Overnight, US stocks surged, and industrial products also generally rebounded. SHFE copper, which had previously fallen significantly, recovered some lost ground, but there is still a large gap compared to pre-holiday levels. Everbright Futures stated that the US government, unable to withstand the pressure of significant financial market volatility, announced a temporary suspension. Although China was not exempted, the weaknesses and decline of this round of US policies began to show, which also significantly alleviated market panic sentiment. However, it should be noted that the variability of US policies undoubtedly became the center of annual trading, and the negative impact on the global economy remains to be seen.

As of April 10, SMM's mainstream regional copper inventory across the country fell significantly by 31,500 mt from Monday to 267,200 mt, achieving six consecutive weeks of weekly destocking. Currently, it has fallen back by 105,000 mt from the year's high and is 138,000 mt lower YoY. Previously, copper prices weakened significantly, and spot premiums once rose. However, today's futures price rebounded, and spot premiums also narrowed significantly. Jinyuan Futures stated that the tight supply pattern of copper ore remains unchanged, and domestic trade copper in China maintains premiums. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize and rise in the short term, with attention to changes in the global trade situation.