This week, the ferrous metals series fluctuated rangebound, with the average price of steel rising slightly WoW. On the news front, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, among others. It also highlighted the need for timely RRR cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity, strengthen support for the real economy, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade, injecting a "shot in the arm" into the market. During the week, rumors of production restrictions circulated in the market again, prompting an immediate rally in steel futures prices. However, as no mandatory production restriction policies were subsequently implemented, the market once again engaged in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments. On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the manufacturing PMI for April was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month...

[SMM Daily Coke Market Brief Review] In terms of supply, most coke enterprises have maintained profits and have shown good production enthusiasm, with coke supply remaining stable at highs. Demand side, downstream steel mills' blast furnace pig iron production is fluctuating at highs, resulting in high daily consumption of coke. However, there is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and steel mills' willingness to purchase and restock after the holiday is generally moderate. In summary, the fundamental aspects of the coke market remain favorable after the holiday, but macro expectations are moderate. Coupled with the potential implementation of a crude steel production reduction policy, which is dampening market confidence, the coke market may stabilize after the Labour Day holiday.

The General Office of the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the 29th, stating that the Ministry of Finance plans to conduct the first renewal issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (Phase II) for 2025. The renewed treasury bonds are 30-year fixed-rate coupon bonds, with a total face value of 71 billion yuan in competitive tendering, and no additional bidding will be conducted for Category A members. The coupon rate of the renewed treasury bonds remains the same as that of the previously issued treasury bonds of the same maturity, at 1.88%.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] In terms of supply, the impact from HRC maintenance this week was 40,600 mt, unchanged WoW. Next week, the impact from HRC maintenance is expected to be 112,600 mt, an increase of 72,000 mt WoW. Short-term supply will remain at a high level. Demand side, restocking demand before the holiday was released during the weekend and part of the week, but prices fluctuated significantly, leading to relatively cautious restocking overall. Cost side, steel mills may have expectations of restocking raw materials before the holiday, but with limited increases in pig iron output, the support from raw materials is neutral. Overall, the imbalance in HRC fundamentals is relatively small, and inventory before the holiday maintains a good downward trend. Currently, there are expectations that the timing of the actual demand decline will be postponed, and there are still expectations for macro policy efforts. However, in the short term, the time window before the holiday is short, and the most-traded contract is expected to fluctuate rangebound. During the holiday, overseas risks still exist, and it is recommended to maintain a light position.

SMM Steel News on April 29: According to SMM statistics, the estimated total resource shipments in the mainstream market this week were 262,400 mt, an increase of 44,100 mt compared to the shipment level WoW. By market:

SMM Steel News on April 29: According to SMM statistics, the estimated total resource shipments in the mainstream market this week were 262,400 mt, up 44,100 mt WoW from the shipment level last week. By market:

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the cost for coking enterprises has decreased, and the increase in profits has driven up their production enthusiasm. As a result, coke production has steadily risen, and shipments have been smooth, with coking enterprises generally maintaining low inventory levels. On the demand side, pig iron production continues to remain high, and steel mills have a rigid demand for coke. With the approaching Labour Day holiday, some steel mills have slightly restocked. In summary, the fundamentals of the coke market are good, but macro expectations are average, and market sentiment is cautious. In the short term, the coke market is expected to continue to operate steadily.

According to SMM data, as of April 24, the weekly average domestic HRC production was 3.3262 million mt, showing a trend of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half, up 0.13% WoW from March. The increase in HRC production in April was slightly lower than expected, primarily due to the continued impact of maintenance at some steel mills in early April. In addition, as HRC profits declined, some steel mills shifted their pig iron production to construction materials in mid-April. Under the combined influence of these factors, the increase in HRC production in April fell short of expectations.

[SMM Weekly Maintenance Statistics] According to SMM statistics, for the week (April 26 to May 2), the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron production was...