SHFE copper hit the limit down at the opening, briefly breaking the limit down before noon. However, as domestic stock markets declined, market sentiment weakened again, and multiple contracts closed at the limit down. The escalation of trade disputes has raised concerns about the economic outlook, leading to a shift in trading logic. Copper prices, which were difficult to sustain at high levels, experienced a significant drop.
On the eve of the holiday, the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, and during the holiday, some countries officially announced countermeasures. Panic sentiment surged sharply, and the market became increasingly concerned about a potential economic recession. Major overseas stock indices and industrial products were widely sold off, and domestic commodities faced a need for catch-up declines after the holiday. Jinrui Futures stated that the tariff policy exceeded expectations, causing a widespread drop in risk assets in the short term. In the future, attention should be paid to hedging policies and whether there will be liquidity shocks under risk-averse conditions.
Recently, as copper prices fell back from highs, downstream demand improved. Last week, domestic refined copper social inventory returned to a destocking trend. Today, copper prices fell sharply, and downstream purchasing was conducted as needed, with spot premiums significantly widening, awaiting the latest social inventory data from institutions. Everbright Futures stated that on the fundamental side, factors such as tight copper concentrate supply, continuous destocking of domestic and foreign inventories, the domestic peak season, and restocking expectations may become strong supports for prices in the future. After the market's panic-driven sell-off, opportunities for bottom-fishing will also emerge, especially for downstream copper-consuming enterprises.
